Metz 3–6 Guingamp: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Metz

FT

3 – 6

HT: 3 – 3

Guingamp

A. Jallow 16', 10'

V. Manceau 2' (OG)

J. Livolant 88', 9' (pen)

W. Tchimbembé 85'

D. Louiserre 69'

G. Courtet 45+7' (pen)

S. Quemper 45+1'

9/12/2022

Ligue 2 · Round 8Stade Saint-Symphorien

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Metz49%

×Draw26%

Guingamp25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MetzExpected goals in this matchGuingamp

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.03

Metz

1.54

Guingamp

1.03

Metz creates 50% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 129 away

1.79

creates per match

1.25

0.82

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Metz

1.79

Guingamp

1.25

allows per match

Metz

0.82

Guingamp

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metz+0.00on par

Guingamp+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metz ↓

Guingamp →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Metz or draw

75%

Metz or Guingamp

74%

Draw or Guingamp

51%

Winning margin

Metz wins by 2+

25%

Guingamp wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Metz 1+ goals

79%

Metz 2+ goals

45%

Metz 3+ goals

20%

Guingamp 1+ goals

64%

Guingamp 2+ goals

28%

Guingamp 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Metz (draw refunded)

66%

Guingamp (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metz at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.82 · 62 matches

Guingamp away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metz attack 1.79 + Guingamp defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.54

Guingamp attack 1.25 + Metz defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Metz scores more

49%

level

26%

Guingamp scores more

25%

Metz at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Metz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

J. Livolant

Guingamp · F

9.3

Match Events

-5'

Ibrahima Niane

2'

V. ManceauOwn goal

9'

J. LivolantPenalty

10'

16'

31'

31'

34'

45+3'

45+7'

O. Ba← I. Niane

45+1'

S. Quemper↳ V. Manceau

45+7'

G. CourtetPenalty

46'

B. Guillaume← V. Manceau

51'

Baptiste Roux

56'

Danley Jean Jacques

60'

Matthieu Udol

65'

V. Kiankaulua← T. Muyumba

66'

Vicky Kiankaulua

69'

D. Louiserre↳ M. Barthelmé

77'

K. N'Doram← H. Maïga

77'

L. Joseph← A. Jallow

78'

A. Musaba← L. Gueye

83'

W. Tchimbembé← M. Barthelmé

85'

W. Tchimbembé↳ B. Guillaume

88'

J. Livolant

89'

J. Gaudin← J. Livolant

89'

M. Riou← B. Roux

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MetzGuingamp

Overview

28%Possession72%

5Total Shots18

0Corners4

12Fouls10

Shots

5Total Shots18

2On Target9

1Off Target7

2Blocked2

2Inside Box11

3Outside Box7

Passing

28%Possession72%

221Total Passes551

149Accurate Passes488

67%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

4Red Cards0

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Metz vs Guingamp

Guingamp beat Metz 6-3 in Ligue 2 on September 12, 2022.

Goals: V. Manceau (2' o.g.), J. Livolant (9' pen, 88'), A. Jallow (10', 16'), S. Quemper (45+1'), G. Courtet (45+7' pen), D. Louiserre (69'), W. Tchimbembé (85').

Guingamp controlled possession (72%) and registered 18 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stade Saint-Symphorien in Longeville-lès-Metz.

Metz vs Guingamp — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Metz vs Guingamp