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Guingamp vs Metz — Ligue 2 2018

Guingamp
Guingamp
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Metz
Metz
G. Courtet 60'
G. Mikautadze 21'
5/20/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 36Stade du Roudourou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Guingamp32%
×Draw27%
Metz40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guingamp
1.12
Metz
1.29

Metz creates 15% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 62 away

creates per match

Guingamp
1.40
Metz
1.39

allows per match

Guingamp
1.20
Metz
0.84

finishing

Guingamp+0.00on par
Metz+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guingamp ↓

Metz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Guingamp or draw
60%
Guingamp or Metz
73%
Draw or Metz
68%

Winning margin

Guingamp wins by 2+
13%
Metz wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Guingamp 1+ goals
67%
Guingamp 2+ goals
31%
Guingamp 3+ goals
10%
Metz 1+ goals
72%
Metz 2+ goals
37%
Metz 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Guingamp (draw refunded)
44%
Metz (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guingamp at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 126 matches

Metz away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.84 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guingamp attack 1.40 + Metz defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.12

Metz attack 1.39 + Guingamp defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Guingamp scores more
32%
level
27%
Metz scores more
40%

Metz at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Metz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
G. MikautadzeMetzMetz · F
7.6

Match Events

21'
G. Mikautadze↳ M. Udol
41'
Joseph N'Duquidi
53'
H. Picard← A. El Ouazzani
60'
G. Courtet↳ T. Muyumba
69'
A. Atta← J. NDuquidi
70'
H. Maïga← Y. Maziz
81'
P. Diallo← C. Sabaly
82'
J. Siwe← B. Guillaume
82'
T. Luvambo← J. Livolant
87'
L. Joseph← A. Jallow
90+4'
Koffi Kouao

Possession

49%Guingamp

Shots

16Guingamp

Pass accuracy

49%Guingamp

Statistics

GuingampMetz
Overview
49%Possession51%
16Total Shots8
5Corners3
12Fouls14
Shots
16Total Shots8
5On Target3
8Off Target5
3Blocked0
11Inside Box5
5Outside Box3
Passing
49%Possession51%
447Total Passes479
329Accurate Passes373
74%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls14
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Guingamp 1 – 1 Metz

Guingamp and Metz drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on May 20, 2023.

Goals: G. Mikautadze (21'), G. Courtet (60').

Metz controlled possession (51%) and registered 8 shots to 16.

The match was played at Stade du Roudourou in Guingamp.