Metz 1–2 Dijon: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Metz

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Dijon

L. Gueye 78'

M. Le Bihan 59'

Xande Silva 29'

8/27/2022

Ligue 2 · Round 5Stade Saint-Symphorien

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Metz52%

×Draw25%

Dijon23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MetzExpected goals in this matchDijon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.95

Metz

1.57

Dijon

0.95

Metz creates 65% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 54 away

1.79

creates per match

1.07

0.82

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Metz

1.79

Dijon

1.07

allows per match

Metz

0.82

Dijon

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metz+0.00on par

Dijon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metz ↓

Dijon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Metz or draw

77%

Metz or Dijon

75%

Draw or Dijon

48%

Winning margin

Metz wins by 2+

27%

Dijon wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Metz 1+ goals

79%

Metz 2+ goals

46%

Metz 3+ goals

21%

Dijon 1+ goals

61%

Dijon 2+ goals

25%

Dijon 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Metz (draw refunded)

69%

Dijon (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metz at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.82 · 62 matches

Dijon away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.35 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metz attack 1.79 + Dijon defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.57

Dijon attack 1.07 + Metz defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Metz scores more

52%

level

25%

Dijon scores more

23%

Metz at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Metz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Y. Maziz

Metz · M

7.9

Match Events

29'

Xande Silva↳ B. Soumaré

35'

40'

41'

53'

57'

59'

64'

66'

66'

66'

68'

70'

A. Ngouyamsa← J. Marié

78'

Vagner← A. Jallow

78'

K. Kouao← W. Mikelbrencis

78'

L. Gueye↳ Y. Maziz

81'

D. Congré← D. Ndong

81'

V. Jacob← Xande Silva

83'

Lamine Gueye

88'

L. Joseph← L. Gueye

88'

J. Pi← O. Thioune

88'

I. Camara← B. Soumaré

89'

D. Jean Jacques← H. Maïga

90'

Fali Candé

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MetzDijon

Overview

60%Possession40%

18Total Shots7

6Corners4

10Fouls10

Shots

18Total Shots7

5On Target4

12Off Target2

1Blocked1

10Inside Box5

8Outside Box2

Passing

60%Possession40%

531Total Passes361

460Accurate Passes273

87%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls10

5Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

Ligue 2: Metz 1–2 Dijon

Dijon beat Metz 2-1 in Ligue 2 on August 27, 2022.

Goals: Xande Silva (29'), M. Le Bihan (59'), L. Gueye (78').

Metz controlled possession (60%) and registered 18 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stade Saint-Symphorien in Longeville-lès-Metz.

Metz vs Dijon — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 2: Metz 1–2 Dijon