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Dijon vs Metz — Ligue 1 2026

Dijon
Dijon
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Metz
Metz
Mama Baldé 48'
D. Bronn 85'
Vágner 82'
F. Chafik 70' (OG)
P. Sarr 42'
M. Gueye 37'
5/2/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 35Stade Gaston-Gérard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Dijon37%
×Draw27%
Metz36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dijon
1.27
Metz
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 72 away

creates per match

Dijon
0.84
Metz
1.00

allows per match

Dijon
1.46
Metz
1.71

finishing

Dijon+0.00on par
Metz+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dijon ↓

Metz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dijon or draw
64%
Dijon or Metz
73%
Draw or Metz
63%

Winning margin

Dijon wins by 2+
16%
Metz wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Dijon 1+ goals
72%
Dijon 2+ goals
36%
Dijon 3+ goals
14%
Metz 1+ goals
71%
Metz 2+ goals
35%
Metz 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Dijon (draw refunded)
51%
Metz (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dijon at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.46 · 50 matches

Metz away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.71 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dijon attack 0.84 + Metz defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.27

Metz attack 1.00 + Dijon defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dijon scores more
37%
level
27%
Metz scores more
36%

Dijon at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Dijon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
P. SarrMetzMetz · M
8.2

Match Events

5'
Papa Ndiaga Yade
37'
M. Gueye
42'
P. Sarr
43'
Bersant Celina
46'
G. Ngonda← J. Panzo
46'
F. Sammaritano← A. Chalá
46'
T. Ambrose← P. Yade
48'
Mama Baldé↳ F. Sammaritano
59'
Vágner← I. Niane
59'
F. Boulaya← K. NDoram
68'
V. Angban← M. Gueye
70'
F. ChafikOwn goal
75'
M. Chouiar← E. Ebimbe
75'
M. Dobre← Mama Baldé
82'
Vágner↳ F. Boulaya
83'
Wesley Lautoa
85'
Y. Maziz← P. Sarr
85'
D. Bronn↳ F. Boulaya
86'
J. Siwe← W. Lautoa

Possession

44%Dijon

Shots

10Dijon

Pass accuracy

48%Dijon

Statistics

DijonMetz
Overview
44%Possession56%
10Total Shots14
6Corners3
11Fouls16
Shots
10Total Shots14
4On Target6
4Off Target7
2Blocked1
8Inside Box8
2Outside Box6
Passing
44%Possession56%
398Total Passes491
313Accurate Passes412
79%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls16
1Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Dijon vs Metz

Metz beat Dijon 5-1 in Ligue 1 on May 2, 2021.

Goals: M. Gueye (37'), P. Sarr (42'), Mama Baldé (48'), F. Chafik (70' o.g.), Vágner (82'), D. Bronn (85').

Metz controlled possession (56%) and registered 14 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stade Gaston-Gérard in Dijon.