Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Metz vs Dijon — Ligue 1 2026

Metz
Metz
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Dijon
Dijon
11/8/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 10Stade Saint-Symphorien

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Metz44%
×Draw26%
Dijon30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metz
1.42
Dijon
1.13

Metz creates 26% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 48 away

creates per match

Metz
1.03
Dijon
0.73

allows per match

Metz
1.52
Dijon
1.81

finishing

Metz+0.00on par
Dijon+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metz ↓

Dijon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Metz or draw
70%
Metz or Dijon
74%
Draw or Dijon
56%

Winning margin

Metz wins by 2+
21%
Dijon wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Metz 1+ goals
76%
Metz 2+ goals
41%
Metz 3+ goals
17%
Dijon 1+ goals
68%
Dijon 2+ goals
31%
Dijon 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Metz (draw refunded)
59%
Dijon (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metz at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.52 · 77 matches

Dijon away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.81 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metz attack 1.03 + Dijon defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.42

Dijon attack 0.73 + Metz defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Metz scores more
44%
level
26%
Dijon scores more
30%

Metz at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Metz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Metz 1 – 1 Dijon

Metz and Dijon drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on November 8, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Saint-Symphorien in Longeville-lès-Metz.