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Dijon vs Metz — Ligue 2 2018

Dijon
Dijon
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Metz
Metz
2/18/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 24Stade Gaston-Gérard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Dijon33%
×Draw29%
Metz39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dijon
1.07
Metz
1.19

Metz creates 11% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 62 away

creates per match

Dijon
1.31
Metz
1.39

allows per match

Dijon
0.98
Metz
0.84

finishing

Dijon+0.00on par
Metz+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dijon ↓

Metz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Dijon or draw
61%
Dijon or Metz
71%
Draw or Metz
67%

Winning margin

Dijon wins by 2+
13%
Metz wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Dijon 1+ goals
66%
Dijon 2+ goals
29%
Dijon 3+ goals
9%
Metz 1+ goals
70%
Metz 2+ goals
33%
Metz 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dijon (draw refunded)
46%
Metz (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dijon at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.98 · 52 matches

Metz away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.84 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dijon attack 1.31 + Metz defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.07

Metz attack 1.39 + Dijon defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dijon scores more
33%
level
29%
Metz scores more
39%

Metz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Metz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
A. OukidjaMetzMetz · G
7.5

Match Events

18'
Arthur Atta
19'
Matteo Ahlinvi
46'
Y. Maziz← A. Atta
49'
Adama Fofana
59'
Habib Maïga
60'
C. Sabaly← L. Joseph
65'
Ismaël Traoré
73'
J. Pi← M. Ahlinvi
73'
B. Soumaré← R. Assalé
78'
X. Skuka← G. Mikautadze
78'
J. N'Duquidi← H. Maïga
81'
W. Nassi Ouled Bentle← L. Tchaouna
88'
C. Traoré← A. Fofana
88'
M. Aké← Xande Silva

Possession

53%Dijon

Shots

7Dijon

Pass accuracy

50%Dijon

Statistics

DijonMetz
Overview
53%Possession47%
7Total Shots10
3Corners5
14Fouls17
Shots
7Total Shots10
2On Target3
4Off Target5
1Blocked2
4Inside Box6
3Outside Box4
Passing
53%Possession47%
511Total Passes455
423Accurate Passes378
83%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls17
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides0

Ligue 2: Dijon 0–0 Metz

Dijon and Metz drew 0-0 in Ligue 2 on February 18, 2023.

Dijon controlled possession (53%) and registered 7 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stade Gaston-Gérard in Dijon.