Meizhou Kejia 1–2 Hangzhou Greentown

Meizhou Kejia

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Hangzhou Greentown

R. Wankewai 50'

Leung Nok Hang 74'

D. Owusu-Sekyere 48'

3/31/2024

Super League · Round 3Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Meizhou Kejia43%

×Draw24%

Hangzhou Greentown33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Meizhou KejiaExpected goals in this matchHangzhou Greentown

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.39

Meizhou Kejia

1.62

Hangzhou Greentown

1.39

Meizhou Kejia creates 17% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 26 away

1.68

creates per match

1.48

1.29

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Meizhou Kejia

1.68

Hangzhou Greentown

1.48

allows per match

Meizhou Kejia

1.29

Hangzhou Greentown

1.56

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Meizhou Kejia-0.18scores less

Hangzhou Greentown-0.21scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meizhou Kejia ↓

Hangzhou Greentown →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Meizhou Kejia or draw

67%

Meizhou Kejia or Hangzhou Greentown

76%

Draw or Hangzhou Greentown

57%

Winning margin

Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+

22%

Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals

80%

Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals

48%

Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals

22%

Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals

75%

Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals

40%

Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)

57%

Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meizhou Kejia at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.29 · 18 matches

Hangzhou Greentown away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.56 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.68 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.62

Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.48 + Meizhou Kejia defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Meizhou Kejia scores more

43%

level

24%

Hangzhou Greentown scores more

33%

Meizhou Kejia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Meizhou Kejia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

36

Lucas Possignolo

Hangzhou Greentown · D

8.0

Match Events

48'

D. Owusu-Sekyere

50'

R. Wankewai↳ Chen Zhechao

58'

Rooney WankewaiGoal cancelled

69'

Yang Chaosheng← Ye Chugui

74'

Leung Nok Hang↳ Yue Xin

75'

Rao Weihui← Li Ning

76'

Nok Hang LeungGoal confirmed

78'

Sun Guowen← Gu Bin

84'

Yang Yihu← Chen Zhechao

84'

Chen Jie← Shi Liang

89'

Zhang Jiaqi← Cheng Jin

90+6'

Di Gao

90+3'

Bo Zhao

90+6'

Wang Yang← Li Tixiang

90+6'

Gao Di← D. Owusu-Sekyere

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MeizhouHangzhou

Overview

38%Possession62%

10Total Shots22

0.74Expected Goals (xG)2.71

1Corners9

15Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots22

3On Target8

4Off Target7

3Blocked7

5Inside Box16

5Outside Box6

Passing

38%Possession62%

303Total Passes485

213Accurate Passes412

70%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls11

0Yellow Cards2

5Offsides1