Hangzhou Greentown 4–0 Meizhou Kejia

Hangzhou Greentown

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Meizhou Kejia

Cheng Jin 54'

Leonardo 40', 36'

J. Kouassi 38'

7/7/2024

Super League · Round 18Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Hangzhou Greentown57%

×Draw21%

Meizhou Kejia22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hangzhou GreentownExpected goals in this matchMeizhou Kejia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.24

Hangzhou Greentown

2.13

Meizhou Kejia

1.24

Hangzhou Greentown creates 72% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 16 away

1.90

creates per match

1.03

1.45

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Hangzhou Greentown

1.90

Meizhou Kejia

1.03

allows per match

Hangzhou Greentown

1.45

Meizhou Kejia

2.37

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

Hangzhou Greentown+0.29scores more

Meizhou Kejia-0.28scores less

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hangzhou Greentown ↓

Meizhou Kejia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Hangzhou Greentown or draw

78%

Hangzhou Greentown or Meizhou Kejia

79%

Draw or Meizhou Kejia

43%

Winning margin

Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+

35%

Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals

88%

Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals

63%

Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals

35%

Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals

71%

Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals

35%

Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)

73%

Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hangzhou Greentown at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.45 · 26 matches

Meizhou Kejia away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.37 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.90 + Meizhou Kejia defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.13

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.03 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hangzhou Greentown scores more

57%

level

21%

Meizhou Kejia scores more

22%

Hangzhou Greentown at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hangzhou Greentown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

45

Leonardo

Hangzhou Greentown · F

9.0

Match Events

28'

Nok Hang Leung

32'

Nebojša Kosović

36'

Leonardo↳ Yue Xin

38'

J. Kouassi↳ F. Andrijašević

40'

Leonardo

45'

Jia’nan Wang

46'

Li Yongjia← Shi Liang

46'

Yang Chaosheng← Wang Jianan

46'

J. Uzuegbunam← Rodrigo Henrique

54'

Cheng Jin↳ Leonardo

58'

Zhang Jiaqi← Li Tixiang

59'

Yao Junsheng← D. Owusu-Sekyere

64'

Li Yongjia

66'

Yin Congyao← T. Conraad

70'

Gao Di← Cheng Jin

70'

Sun Zheng'ao← Leung Nok Hang

78'

Yang Yihu← Ye Chugui

79'

Wang Yudong← Leonardo

90+1'

Yihu Yang

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HangzhouMeizhou

Overview

57%Possession43%

26Total Shots13

6Corners3

8Fouls10

Shots

26Total Shots13

11On Target6

11Off Target4

4Blocked3

19Inside Box9

7Outside Box4

Passing

57%Possession43%

479Total Passes370

429Accurate Passes304

90%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

6Saves7

Discipline

8Fouls10

1Yellow Cards4

5Offsides4