Hangzhou Greentown 2–2 Meizhou Kejia

Hangzhou Greentown

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Meizhou Kejia

Tao Qianglong 23'

Y. Wang 17'

M. Cheukoua 78' (pen)

Wei Xiangxin 64' (pen)

4/16/2025

Super League · Round 7Huizhou Olympic Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Hangzhou Greentown55%

×Draw21%

Meizhou Kejia24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hangzhou GreentownExpected goals in this matchMeizhou Kejia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.31

Hangzhou Greentown

2.08

Meizhou Kejia

1.31

Hangzhou Greentown creates 59% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 18 away

1.89

creates per match

1.11

1.50

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Hangzhou Greentown

1.89

Meizhou Kejia

1.11

allows per match

Hangzhou Greentown

1.50

Meizhou Kejia

2.27

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

Hangzhou Greentown+0.30scores more

Meizhou Kejia-0.33scores less

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hangzhou Greentown ↓

Meizhou Kejia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Hangzhou Greentown or draw

76%

Hangzhou Greentown or Meizhou Kejia

79%

Draw or Meizhou Kejia

45%

Winning margin

Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+

33%

Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals

87%

Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals

61%

Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals

34%

Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals

73%

Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals

38%

Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)

70%

Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hangzhou Greentown at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.50 · 27 matches

Meizhou Kejia away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.27 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.89 + Meizhou Kejia defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.08

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.11 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Hangzhou Greentown scores more

55%

level

21%

Meizhou Kejia scores more

24%

Hangzhou Greentown at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Hangzhou Greentown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

39

Y. Wang

Hangzhou Greentown · F

8.0

Match Events

17'

Y. Wang↳ Sun Guowen

23'

Tao Qianglong↳ Tong Lei

35'

Wen Da← Yi Xianlong

46'

Wei Xiangxin← Liu Yun

64'

Wei XiangxinPenalty

71'

Yao Junsheng← Bao Shengxin

71'

A. Abdusalam← Tao Qianglong

74'

Michael CheukouaPenalty confirmed

78'

M. CheukouaPenalty

79'

Chen Xuhuang← Wei Zhiwei

83'

Li Ning← Ji Shengpan

83'

Zhang Hao← Yang Chaosheng

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HangzhouMeizhou

Overview

60%Possession40%

17Total Shots12

1.75Expected Goals (xG)2.70

3Corners5

14Fouls17

Shots

17Total Shots12

2On Target4

11Off Target8

4Blocked0

12Inside Box8

5Outside Box4

Passing

60%Possession40%

610Total Passes395

534Accurate Passes326

88%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

14Fouls17

1Offsides0