Meizhou Kejia 1–1 Hangzhou Greentown

Meizhou Kejia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Hangzhou Greentown

T. Conraad 45+2'

N. Mushekwi 90+8'

10/19/2023

Super League · Round 28Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Meizhou Kejia39%

×Draw24%

Hangzhou Greentown37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Meizhou KejiaExpected goals in this matchHangzhou Greentown

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.57

Meizhou Kejia

1.62

Hangzhou Greentown

1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 27 away

1.68

creates per match

1.63

1.51

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Meizhou Kejia

1.68

Hangzhou Greentown

1.63

allows per match

Meizhou Kejia

1.51

Hangzhou Greentown

1.56

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

-0.37scores less than expected

finishing

Meizhou Kejia-0.21scores less

Hangzhou Greentown-0.37scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meizhou Kejia ↓

Hangzhou Greentown →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Meizhou Kejia or draw

63%

Meizhou Kejia or Hangzhou Greentown

76%

Draw or Hangzhou Greentown

61%

Winning margin

Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+

20%

Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals

80%

Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals

48%

Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals

22%

Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals

79%

Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals

46%

Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)

51%

Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meizhou Kejia at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.51 · 19 matches

Hangzhou Greentown away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.56 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.68 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.62

Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.63 + Meizhou Kejia defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Meizhou Kejia scores more

39%

level

24%

Hangzhou Greentown scores more

37%

Meizhou Kejia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Meizhou Kejia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

Cheng Yuelei

Meizhou Kejia · G

8.3

Match Events

17'

Jie Chen

44'

Rade Dugalić

45+2'

T. Conraad

46'

Wang Wei← Chen Zhechao

46'

Shi Liang← Chen Jie

46'

Yang Yihu← Ye Chugui

46'

Leonardo← Lucas Possignolo

53'

LeonardoPenalty cancelled

75'

A. Kotnik← Rodrigo Henrique

82'

Nebojša Kosović

83'

Leung Nok Hang← Cheng Jin

83'

Yao Junsheng← Sun Zhengao

84'

Chaosheng Yang

88'

Liao Junjian← T. Conraad

90+9'

Yihu Yang

90+3'

Tixiang Li

90+8'

N. Mushekwi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MeizhouHangzhou

Overview

33%Possession67%

14Total Shots22

1.67Expected Goals (xG)5.61

6Corners8

22Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots22

5On Target10

3Off Target6

6Blocked6

11Inside Box17

3Outside Box5

Passing

33%Possession67%

231Total Passes475

129Accurate Passes373

56%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

9Saves4

Discipline

22Fouls13

5Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1