Mantova 3–0 Cesena: Result & Stats | Serie B

Mantova

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cesena

L. Mancuso 90'

A. Meroni 57'

G. Zaro 6' (OG)

3/17/2026

Serie B · Round 31Stadio Danilo Martelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Mantova43%

×Draw28%

Cesena30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MantovaExpected goals in this matchCesena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.04

Mantova

1.31

Cesena

1.04

Mantova creates 26% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

1.28

creates per match

1.08

1.01

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Mantova

1.28

Cesena

1.08

allows per match

Mantova

1.01

Cesena

1.35

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

-0.78scores less than expected

finishing

Mantova+0.28scores more

Cesena-0.78scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mantova ↓

Cesena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Mantova or draw

70%

Mantova or Cesena

72%

Draw or Cesena

57%

Winning margin

Mantova wins by 2+

20%

Cesena wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mantova 1+ goals

73%

Mantova 2+ goals

38%

Mantova 3+ goals

14%

Cesena 1+ goals

65%

Cesena 2+ goals

28%

Cesena 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Mantova (draw refunded)

59%

Cesena (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mantova at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.01 · 9 matches

Cesena away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.35 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mantova attack 1.28 + Cesena defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.31

Cesena attack 1.08 + Mantova defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mantova scores more

43%

level

28%

Cesena scores more

30%

Mantova at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mantova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

A. Meroni

Mantova · D

8.0

Match Events

6'

G. ZaroOwn goal

49'

Matteo Guidi

53'

Andrea Ciofi

55'

Matteo Piacentini

57'

A. Meroni↳ A. Castellini

60'

A. Cerri← G. Vrioni

62'

Simone Trimboli

62'

T. Maggioni← A. Dembele

63'

M. Olivieri← T. Corazza

63'

S. Bastoni← R. Ciervo

69'

L. Mancuso← D. Mensah

69'

M. Caprini← N. Buso

75'

D. Bisoli← M. Francesconi

75'

P. Amoran← M. Piacentini

82'

C. Falletti← T. Marras

82'

F. Paoletti← S. Trimboli

90'

L. Mancuso↳ C. Falletti

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MantovaCesena

Overview

48%Possession52%

20Total Shots13

1.68Expected Goals (xG)0.75

5Corners3

19Fouls16

Shots

20Total Shots13

4On Target3

10Off Target5

6Blocked5

12Inside Box7

8Outside Box6

Passing

48%Possession52%

441Total Passes480

376Accurate Passes408

85%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

-1.81Goals Prevented-1.81

Discipline

19Fouls16

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1

Serie B: Mantova 3–0 Cesena

Mantova beat Cesena 3-0 in Serie B on March 17, 2026.

Goals: G. Zaro (6' o.g.), A. Meroni (57'), L. Mancuso (90').

Cesena controlled possession (52%) and registered 13 shots to 20.

The match was played at Stadio Danilo Martelli in Mantova.

Mantova vs Cesena — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Mantova 3–0 Cesena