Mantova 3–0 Cesena: Result & Stats | Serie B

Mantova

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cesena

A. Debenedetti 90+5'

D. Bragantini 80'

A. Fiori 19'

5/1/2025

Serie B · Round 36Stadio Danilo Martelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Mantova44%

×Draw26%

Cesena30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MantovaExpected goals in this matchCesena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.14

Mantova

1.43

Cesena

1.14

Mantova creates 25% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 11 away

1.48

creates per match

1.17

1.11

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Mantova

1.48

Cesena

1.17

allows per match

Mantova

1.11

Cesena

1.38

+0.09on par

finishing

-0.72scores less than expected

finishing

Mantova+0.09on par

Cesena-0.72scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mantova ↓

Cesena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Mantova or draw

70%

Mantova or Cesena

74%

Draw or Cesena

56%

Winning margin

Mantova wins by 2+

21%

Cesena wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Mantova 1+ goals

76%

Mantova 2+ goals

42%

Mantova 3+ goals

17%

Cesena 1+ goals

68%

Cesena 2+ goals

32%

Cesena 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Mantova (draw refunded)

59%

Cesena (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mantova at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.11 · 14 matches

Cesena away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.38 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mantova attack 1.48 + Cesena defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.43

Cesena attack 1.17 + Mantova defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mantova scores more

44%

level

26%

Cesena scores more

30%

Mantova at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mantova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

A. Fiori

Mantova · M

8.6

Match Events

19'

A. Fiori↳ N. Radaelli

27'

33'

46'

46'

49'

53'

58'

M. Solini← S. Giordano

58'

D. Bragantini← F. Galuppini

58'

A. Debenedetti← D. Mensah

67'

E. Tavşan← S. Bastoni

67'

T. Berti← M. Mangraviti

70'

R. Celia← D. Donnarumma

71'

A. La Gumina← C. Shpendi

77'

G. Calò← D. Šarić

79'

M. Aramu← L. Mancuso

80'

D. Bragantini↳ A. Fiori

85'

Antonino La GuminaGoal cancelled

90'

T. Maggioni← N. Radaelli

90+5'

A. Debenedetti↳ T. Maggioni

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MantovaCesena

Overview

64%Possession36%

21Total Shots10

4Corners5

12Fouls19

Shots

21Total Shots10

8On Target5

7Off Target3

6Blocked2

11Inside Box3

10Outside Box7

Passing

64%Possession36%

521Total Passes279

476Accurate Passes234

91%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls19

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides3