Cesena 4–2 Mantova: Result & Stats | Serie B

Cesena

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Mantova

E. Tavşan 70'

G. Prestia 43'

A. Kargbo 21'

C. Shpendi 5'

F. Ruocco 84'

A. Redolfi 58'

9/29/2024

Serie B · Round 7Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Cesena53%

×Draw23%

Mantova25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CesenaExpected goals in this matchMantova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.23

Cesena

1.89

Mantova

1.23

Cesena creates 54% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

1.89

creates per match

1.12

1.34

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Cesena

1.89

Mantova

1.12

allows per match

Cesena

1.34

Mantova

1.89

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Cesena-0.39scores less

Mantova+0.01on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena ↓

Mantova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Cesena or draw

75%

Cesena or Mantova

77%

Draw or Mantova

47%

Winning margin

Cesena wins by 2+

30%

Mantova wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cesena 1+ goals

85%

Cesena 2+ goals

56%

Cesena 3+ goals

29%

Mantova 1+ goals

71%

Mantova 2+ goals

35%

Mantova 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Cesena (draw refunded)

68%

Mantova (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.34 · 12 matches

Mantova away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.89 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena attack 1.89 + Mantova defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.89

Mantova attack 1.12 + Cesena defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Cesena scores more

53%

level

23%

Mantova scores more

25%

Cesena at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cesena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Kargbo

Cesena · F

8.3

Match Events

5'

C. Shpendi↳ A. Kargbo

12'

Simone Trimboli

21'

A. Kargbo

29'

T. Maggioni← N. Radaelli

32'

43'

45'

54'

54'

L. Mendicino← G. Calò

58'

A. Redolfi↳ S. Burrai

62'

L. Mancuso← M. Aramu

63'

A. Debenedetti← D. Mensah

70'

E. Tavşan↳ M. Antonucci

72'

M. Curto← E. Adamo

73'

S. van Hooijdonk← C. Shpendi

75'

F. Galuppini← D. Bragantini

76'

F. Ruocco← A. Fiori

77'

Massimiliano Mangraviti

84'

F. Ruocco

88'

M. Francesconi← S. Bastoni

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CesenaMantova

Overview

33%Possession67%

16Total Shots19

5Corners8

19Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots19

9On Target5

5Off Target7

2Blocked7

14Inside Box13

2Outside Box6

Passing

33%Possession67%

283Total Passes583

223Accurate Passes522

79%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

19Fouls11

3Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Cesena vs Mantova

Cesena beat Mantova 4-2 in Serie B on September 29, 2024.

Goals: C. Shpendi (5'), A. Kargbo (21'), G. Prestia (43'), A. Redolfi (58'), E. Tavşan (70'), F. Ruocco (84').

Mantova controlled possession (67%) and registered 19 shots to 16.

The match was played at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi in Cesena.

Cesena vs Mantova — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Cesena vs Mantova