Cesena 3–2 Mantova: Result & Stats | Serie B

Cesena

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Mantova

G. Frabotta 78'

A. Castellini 54' (OG)

C. Shpendi 42'

F. Artioli 25'

F. Ruocco 17' (pen)

12/13/2025

Serie B · Round 16Stadio Dino Manuzzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Cesena53%

×Draw23%

Mantova25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CesenaExpected goals in this matchMantova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.23

Cesena

1.89

Mantova

1.23

Cesena creates 54% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

1.89

creates per match

1.12

1.34

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Cesena

1.89

Mantova

1.12

allows per match

Cesena

1.34

Mantova

1.89

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Cesena-0.39scores less

Mantova+0.01on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena ↓

Mantova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Cesena or draw

75%

Cesena or Mantova

77%

Draw or Mantova

47%

Winning margin

Cesena wins by 2+

30%

Mantova wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cesena 1+ goals

85%

Cesena 2+ goals

56%

Cesena 3+ goals

29%

Mantova 1+ goals

71%

Mantova 2+ goals

35%

Mantova 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Cesena (draw refunded)

68%

Mantova (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.34 · 12 matches

Mantova away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.89 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena attack 1.89 + Mantova defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.89

Mantova attack 1.12 + Cesena defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Cesena scores more

53%

level

23%

Mantova scores more

25%

Cesena at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cesena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99

G. Frabotta

Cesena · M

9.5

Match Events

16'

Tommaso MaggioniPenalty confirmed

17'

F. RuoccoPenalty

25'

F. Artioli

32'

N. Bonfanti← D. Mensah

42'

C. Shpendi

54'

A. CastelliniOwn goal

56'

Federico Artioli

63'

E. Adamo← M. Castagnetti

70'

S. Mullen← C. Bani

70'

D. Wieser← F. Paoletti

73'

78'

80'

81'

81'

83'

C. Falletti← F. Artioli

83'

M. Caprini← T. Marras

90+2'

M. Guidi← R. Ciervo

90+2'

S. Balde← J. Blesa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CesenaMantova

Overview

50%Possession50%

20Total Shots15

4.07Expected Goals (xG)1.72

7Corners2

17Fouls7

Shots

20Total Shots15

8On Target7

7Off Target4

5Blocked4

17Inside Box4

3Outside Box11

Passing

50%Possession50%

493Total Passes496

437Accurate Passes436

89%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

5Saves6

Discipline

17Fouls7

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0