Manta FC 2–3 Barcelona SC: Result & Stats

Manta FC

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Barcelona SC

R. Ortiz 86'

D. Valencia 14'

O. Rivero 90', 50'

G. Campi 3'

2/15/2025

Liga Pro · Round 1Estadio Jocay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Manta FC35%

×Draw27%

Barcelona SC39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manta FCExpected goals in this matchBarcelona SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.31

Manta FC

1.23

Barcelona SC

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

1.05

creates per match

1.28

1.35

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Manta FC

1.05

Barcelona SC

1.28

allows per match

Manta FC

1.35

Barcelona SC

1.42

-0.05on par

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Manta FC-0.05on par

Barcelona SC+0.01on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manta FC ↓

Barcelona SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Manta FC or draw

61%

Manta FC or Barcelona SC

73%

Draw or Barcelona SC

65%

Winning margin

Manta FC wins by 2+

15%

Barcelona SC wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Manta FC 1+ goals

71%

Manta FC 2+ goals

35%

Manta FC 3+ goals

13%

Barcelona SC 1+ goals

73%

Barcelona SC 2+ goals

38%

Barcelona SC 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Manta FC (draw refunded)

47%

Barcelona SC (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manta FC at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.35 · 6 matches

Barcelona SC away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.42 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manta FC attack 1.05 + Barcelona SC defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.23

Barcelona SC attack 1.28 + Manta FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Manta FC scores more

35%

level

27%

Barcelona SC scores more

39%

Barcelona SC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Barcelona SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37

G. Campi

Barcelona SC · D

7.3

Match Events

3'

14'

28'

50'

54'

54'

D. Leiton← A. Castillo

59'

R. Ortiz← D. Valencia

73'

L. Souza de Almeida← J. R. Quinonez Ruiz

73'

G. J. Cortez Casierra← B. Oyola

76'

D. Cabezas← F. Ospitaleche

76'

M. Jaramillo← J. Mina

78'

C. Solano← J. Valiente

81'

Leonai Souza de Almeida

86'

87'

90+10'

90+1'

90'

Shots

Statistics

MantaBarcelona

Overview

1Total Shots1

1Fouls1

Shots

1Total Shots1

1On Target1

0Off Target0

0Blocked0

1Inside Box1

0Outside Box0

Discipline

1Fouls1

Match Recap: Manta FC vs Barcelona SC

Barcelona SC beat Manta FC 3-2 in Liga Pro on February 15, 2025.

Goals: G. Campi (3'), D. Valencia (14'), O. Rivero (50', 90'), R. Ortiz (86').

The match was played at Estadio Jocay in Manta.

Manta FC vs Barcelona SC — Liga Pro 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Shots

Statistics

Match Recap: Manta FC vs Barcelona SC