Manta FC 2–3 Barcelona SC: Result & Stats

Manta FC

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Barcelona SC

M. Alaníz 28' (pen)

J. Angulo 11'

M. Oyola 86'

W. Riveros 82'

G. Cortéz 65'

2/21/2021

Liga Pro · 1st Round - 1Estadio Jocay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Manta FC35%

×Draw27%

Barcelona SC39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manta FCExpected goals in this matchBarcelona SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.31

Manta FC

1.23

Barcelona SC

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

1.05

creates per match

1.28

1.35

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Manta FC

1.05

Barcelona SC

1.28

allows per match

Manta FC

1.35

Barcelona SC

1.42

-0.05on par

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Manta FC-0.05on par

Barcelona SC+0.01on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manta FC ↓

Barcelona SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Manta FC or draw

61%

Manta FC or Barcelona SC

73%

Draw or Barcelona SC

65%

Winning margin

Manta FC wins by 2+

15%

Barcelona SC wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Manta FC 1+ goals

71%

Manta FC 2+ goals

35%

Manta FC 3+ goals

13%

Barcelona SC 1+ goals

73%

Barcelona SC 2+ goals

38%

Barcelona SC 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Manta FC (draw refunded)

47%

Barcelona SC (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manta FC at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.35 · 6 matches

Barcelona SC away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.42 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manta FC attack 1.05 + Barcelona SC defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.23

Barcelona SC attack 1.28 + Manta FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Manta FC scores more

35%

level

27%

Barcelona SC scores more

39%

Barcelona SC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Barcelona SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

J. Mesias

11'

J. Angulo↳ Á. Ledesma

21'

E. Martinez

26'

W. Riveros

26'

B. Pinatares

28'

M. AlanízPenalty

34'

A. Mendoza

46'

G. Cortéz← J. Perlaza

46'

G. Mastriani← L. Martínez

54'

J. Angulo

56'

M. Alaniz

64'

J. Domínguez← J. Mesias

65'

G. Cortéz

66'

N. Molina← B. Piñatares

66'

Adonis Preciado← D. Díaz

66'

71'

73'

81'

82'

W. Riveros↳ G. Cortéz

86'

M. Oyola↳ Adonis Preciado

87'

V. Angulo← N. Prieto

90'

M. Romero← A. Mendoza

Manta

Barcelona

1

6

14

26

10

▼

Díaz

17

▼

López

3

⚽

Riveros

20

▼

Piñatares

8

▼

Martínez

15

▼

11

23

3

14

▼

Mendoza

32

Patiño

66

Flor

5

▼

Prieto

21

A

Ledesma

15

Triviño

50

⚽

Alaníz

7

▼

Mesias

19

⚽

Angulo

Manager: F. Frías

64'▲J. Domínguez←▼J. Mesias

87'▲V. Angulo←▼N. Prieto

90'▲M. Romero←▼A. Mendoza

Manta FC substitutes

27Domínguez33Angulo16Romero13Trelles24Sión1Valencia26Zambrano20Jaime17Valle

Manager: F. Bustos

46'▲G. Cortéz←▼J. Perlaza

46'▲G. Mastriani←▼L. Martínez

66'▲N. Molina←▼B. Piñatares

66'▲Adonis Preciado←▼D. Díaz

66'▲M. Oyola←▼S. López

Barcelona SC substitutes

13Cortéz9Mastriani19Molina77Preciado18Oyola29Quiñónez30León16Quintero28Montaño12Mendoza