Barcelona SC vs Manta FC — Liga Pro 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 5+ matches
Barcelona SC56%
Manta FC20%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Barcelona SC creates 85% more chances
Season form · 5 home / 6 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Barcelona SC ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Barcelona SC at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.94 · 5 matches
Manta FC away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.01 · 6 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Barcelona SC attack 1.40 + Manta FC defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.70
Manta FC attack 0.89 + Barcelona SC defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.92
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 56%?"
Barcelona SC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 56% does not mean "Barcelona SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Independiente del Valle
Macara
Leones del Norte
Universidad Catolica
AucasBarcelona SC
Guayaquil City FC
Delfin SC
Libertad
Mushuc Runa SC
Emelec
LDU de Quito
Tecnico UniversitarioManta FC
Orense SC
Deportivo CuencaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Statistics
Barcelona SC host Manta FC on Monday, 26 July 2021 at 00:00. The match is part of the Liga Pro 2026/2027 season.
Liga Pro: Barcelona SC 2–0 Manta FC
Barcelona SC beat Manta FC 2-0 in Liga Pro on July 26, 2021.
Goals: G. Mastriani (80'), S. López (90+4').
Barcelona SC controlled possession (73%) and registered 19 shots to 3.
The match was played at Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha in Guayaquil.