Barcelona SC 1–1 Manta FC: Result & Stats

Barcelona SC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Manta FC

B. Castillo 45' (pen)

J. Angulo 74' (pen)

5/3/2026

Liga Pro · Round 12Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Barcelona SC56%

×Draw24%

Manta FC20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barcelona SCExpected goals in this matchManta FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.92

Barcelona SC

1.70

Manta FC

0.92

Barcelona SC creates 85% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.40

creates per match

0.89

0.94

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Barcelona SC

1.40

Manta FC

0.89

allows per match

Barcelona SC

0.94

Manta FC

2.01

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

Barcelona SC-0.20scores less

Manta FC-0.22scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona SC ↓

Manta FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Barcelona SC or draw

80%

Barcelona SC or Manta FC

76%

Draw or Manta FC

44%

Winning margin

Barcelona SC wins by 2+

31%

Manta FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Barcelona SC 1+ goals

82%

Barcelona SC 2+ goals

51%

Barcelona SC 3+ goals

24%

Manta FC 1+ goals

60%

Manta FC 2+ goals

23%

Manta FC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Barcelona SC (draw refunded)

73%

Manta FC (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona SC at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.94 · 5 matches

Manta FC away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.01 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona SC attack 1.40 + Manta FC defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.70

Manta FC attack 0.89 + Barcelona SC defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Barcelona SC scores more

56%

level

24%

Manta FC scores more

20%

Barcelona SC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Barcelona SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

35

J. Intriago

Barcelona SC · M

7.9

Match Events

8'

Byron CastilloPenalty cancelled

33'

J. Angulo← J. Blanco

42'

Dagner Quintero

45+4'

Jhonnier ChaláPenalty confirmed

45+9'

Jose Angulo

45+7'

Braian Ramírez

45'

B. CastilloPenalty

46'

A. Medina← J. Alman

48'

Willian Vargas

59'

M. Valencia← J. Troya

71'

M. Celiz← T. Martinez

71'

D. Benedetto← K. Caidedo

71'

J. Gomez← B. Castillo

73'

Jandry Gomez

74'

J. AnguloPenalty

76'

M. Parrales← M. Mejia

76'

H. Villalba← J. Wila

89'

F. Asagidigbi←

89'

J. Nazareno← I. Cuero

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarcelonaManta

Overview

73%Possession27%

16Total Shots4

6Corners2

14Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots4

4On Target3

8Off Target1

4Blocked0

12Inside Box2

4Outside Box2

Passing

73%Possession27%

531Total Passes204

444Accurate Passes135

84%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

3Offsides0