Mansfield Town 0–1 Bristol Rovers: Result & Stats

Mansfield Town

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bristol Rovers

L. McCormick 49'

11/23/2024

League One · Round 17One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Mansfield Town46%

×Draw25%

Bristol Rovers28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mansfield TownExpected goals in this matchBristol Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.14

Mansfield Town

1.54

Bristol Rovers

1.14

Mansfield Town creates 35% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 131 away

1.48

creates per match

0.95

1.33

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Mansfield Town

1.48

Bristol Rovers

0.95

allows per match

Mansfield Town

1.33

Bristol Rovers

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Bristol Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw

72%

Mansfield Town or Bristol Rovers

75%

Draw or Bristol Rovers

54%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

23%

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

79%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

45%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

20%

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

68%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

32%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

62%

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.33 · 46 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.60 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.48 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.54

Bristol Rovers attack 0.95 + Mansfield Town defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mansfield Town scores more

46%

level

25%

Bristol Rovers scores more

28%

Mansfield Town at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

C. Taylor

Bristol Rovers · D

8.2

Match Events

25'

Louis Reed

26'

Kamil Conteh

49'

L. McCormick↳ I. Hutchinson

56'

57'

62'

62'

74'

74'

G. Maris← S. McLaughlin

76'

J. Bowery← F. Blake-Tracy

84'

G. Ward← C. Martin

84'

G. O'Donkor← L. McCormick

90+3'

Elliott Hewitt

90'

S. Sinclair← S. Forde

90'

M. Forbes← I. Hutchinson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MansfieldBristol

Overview

59%Possession41%

19Total Shots13

8Corners4

17Fouls14

Shots

19Total Shots13

4On Target1

6Off Target4

9Blocked8

13Inside Box7

6Outside Box6

Passing

59%Possession41%

440Total Passes318

326Accurate Passes220

74%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls14

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1