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Mansfield Town vs Bristol Rovers — League Two 2018

Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
D. Johnson 90+6' (pen)
O. Hawkins 42'
C. Harries 63'
8/7/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 1One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Mansfield Town44%
×Draw25%
Bristol Rovers31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mansfield Town
1.51
Bristol Rovers
1.22

Mansfield Town creates 24% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 59 away

creates per match

Mansfield Town
1.60
Bristol Rovers
1.22

allows per match

Mansfield Town
1.22
Bristol Rovers
1.42

finishing

Mansfield Town+0.00on par
Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Bristol Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw
69%
Mansfield Town or Bristol Rovers
75%
Draw or Bristol Rovers
56%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+
22%
Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals
78%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
44%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
19%
Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
70%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
34%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
59%
Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.22 · 139 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.42 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.60 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.51

Bristol Rovers attack 1.22 + Mansfield Town defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mansfield Town scores more
44%
level
25%
Bristol Rovers scores more
31%

Mansfield Town at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
O. HawkinsMansfield TownMansfield Town · F
8.2

Match Events

23'
George Maris
32'
Z. Westbrooke← T. Clarke
42'
O. Hawkins↳ S. McLaughlin
63'
C. Harries
70'
G. Lapslie← R. Oates
77'
Paul Coutts
78'
Danny Johnson
78'
Cian Harries
81'
C. Taylor← L. Thomas
81'
J. Baldwin← H. Anderson
86'
Zain Westbrooke
90+2'
R. Stirk← G. Maris
90+6'
D. JohnsonPenalty

Possession

56%Mansfield

Shots

17Mansfield

Pass accuracy

52%Mansfield

Statistics

MansfieldBristol
Overview
56%Possession44%
17Total Shots3
6Corners4
14Fouls15
Shots
17Total Shots3
3On Target2
7Off Target1
7Blocked0
13Inside Box2
4Outside Box1
Passing
56%Possession44%
335Total Passes276
230Accurate Passes173
69%Pass Accuracy63%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls15
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
1Offsides1

League Two: Mansfield Town 2–1 Bristol Rovers

Mansfield Town beat Bristol Rovers 2-1 in League Two on August 7, 2021.

Goals: O. Hawkins (42'), C. Harries (63'), D. Johnson (90+6' pen).

Mansfield Town controlled possession (56%) and registered 17 shots to 3.

The match was played at One Call Stadium in Mansfield, Nottinghamshire.