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Bristol Rovers vs Mansfield Town — League Two 2018

Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
2/12/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 32Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Bristol Rovers41%
×Draw26%
Mansfield Town33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol Rovers
1.39
Mansfield Town
1.21

Bristol Rovers creates 15% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 141 away

creates per match

Bristol Rovers
1.61
Mansfield Town
1.25

allows per match

Bristol Rovers
1.18
Mansfield Town
1.16

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par
Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Mansfield Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw
67%
Bristol Rovers or Mansfield Town
74%
Draw or Mansfield Town
59%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
19%
Mansfield Town wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
75%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
40%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
16%
Mansfield Town 1+ goals
70%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
34%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
56%
Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.18 · 57 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.16 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.61 + Mansfield Town defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.39

Mansfield Town attack 1.25 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more
41%
level
26%
Mansfield Town scores more
33%

Bristol Rovers at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
J. BelshawBristol RoversBristol Rovers · G
7.7

Match Events

33'
Sam Finley
53'
Stephen Quinn
64'
Aaron Collins
64'
G. Maris← S. Quinn
71'
D. Johnson← R. Oates
88'
H. Saunders← H. Anderson
89'
John-Joe O'Toole
90+3'
Matthew Longstaff
90+1'
R. Stirk← J. Murphy

Possession

45%Bristol

Shots

9Bristol

Pass accuracy

48%Bristol

Statistics

BristolMansfield
Overview
45%Possession55%
9Total Shots6
4Corners4
7Fouls15
Shots
9Total Shots6
1On Target4
5Off Target2
3Blocked0
4Inside Box4
5Outside Box2
Passing
45%Possession55%
273Total Passes339
155Accurate Passes206
57%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
7Fouls15
2Yellow Cards3
4Offsides5

League Two: Bristol Rovers 0–0 Mansfield Town

Bristol Rovers and Mansfield Town drew 0-0 in League Two on February 12, 2022.

Mansfield Town controlled possession (55%) and registered 6 shots to 9.

The match was played at Memorial Stadium in Bristol, Gloucestershire.