Bristol Rovers 1–2 Mansfield Town: Result & Stats

Bristol Rovers

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Mansfield Town

R. Sawyers 26'

D. Dwyer 59'

C. Vickers 1'

3/29/2025

League One · Round 39Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Bristol Rovers37%

×Draw27%

Mansfield Town36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol RoversExpected goals in this matchMansfield Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.25

Bristol Rovers

1.27

Mansfield Town

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 133 home / 46 away

1.20

creates per match

1.17

1.34

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Bristol Rovers

1.20

Mansfield Town

1.17

allows per match

Bristol Rovers

1.34

Mansfield Town

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Mansfield Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw

64%

Bristol Rovers or Mansfield Town

73%

Draw or Mansfield Town

63%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

16%

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

72%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

36%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

14%

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

71%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

36%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

51%

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.34 · 133 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.35 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.20 + Mansfield Town defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.27

Mansfield Town attack 1.17 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more

37%

level

27%

Mansfield Town scores more

36%

Bristol Rovers at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

R. Sawyers

Bristol Rovers · M

7.7

Match Events

1'

12'

21'

26'

32'

43'

46'

59'

70'

S. Sinclair← S. Forde

70'

I. Hutchinson← G. Ward

70'

M. Butcher← R. Sawyers

70'

71'

82'

82'

86'

O. Dewsbury← G. ODonkor

89'

Keanu Baccus

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolMansfield

Overview

61%Possession39%

16Total Shots11

6Corners2

11Fouls14

Shots

16Total Shots11

5On Target6

3Off Target3

8Blocked2

9Inside Box7

7Outside Box4

Passing

61%Possession39%

450Total Passes284

339Accurate Passes190

75%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls14

0Yellow Cards4

1Offsides5

League One: Bristol Rovers 1–2 Mansfield Town

Mansfield Town beat Bristol Rovers 2-1 in League One on March 29, 2025.

Goals: C. Vickers (1'), R. Sawyers (26'), D. Dwyer (59').

Bristol Rovers controlled possession (61%) and registered 16 shots to 11.

The match was played at Memorial Stadium in Bristol, Gloucestershire.

Bristol Rovers vs Mansfield Town — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League One: Bristol Rovers 1–2 Mansfield Town