Manchester United 1–1 Leicester: Result & Stats

Manchester United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Leicester

Fred 66'

K. Ịheanachọ 63'

4/2/2022

Premier League · Round 31Old Trafford

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Manchester United56%

×Draw20%

Leicester23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester UnitedExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

1.39

Manchester United

2.24

Leicester

1.39

Manchester United creates 61% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 7 away

2.19

creates per match

1.66

1.11

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Manchester United

2.19

Leicester

1.66

allows per match

Manchester United

1.11

Leicester

2.29

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Manchester United-0.26scores less

Leicester-0.23scores less

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester United ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Manchester United or draw

77%

Manchester United or Leicester

80%

Draw or Leicester

44%

Winning margin

Manchester United wins by 2+

35%

Leicester wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Manchester United 1+ goals

89%

Manchester United 2+ goals

65%

Manchester United 3+ goals

38%

Leicester 1+ goals

75%

Leicester 2+ goals

40%

Leicester 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Manchester United (draw refunded)

71%

Leicester (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester United at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.11 · 30 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.66, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester United attack 2.19 + Leicester defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.24

Leicester attack 1.66 + Manchester United defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Manchester United scores more

56%

level

20%

Leicester scores more

23%

Manchester United at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Manchester United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Maddison

Leicester · M

8.0

Match Events

5'

16'

30'

46'

49'

55'

M. Rashford← S. McTominay

63'

K. Ịheanachọ↳ J. Maddison

64'

D. Amartey← J. Evans

66'

Fred

75'

N. Matić← P. Pogba

81'

James MaddisonGoal cancelled

90+1'

H. Choudhury← N. Mendy

90+2'

P. Daka← K. Ịheanachọ

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterLeicester

Overview

54%Possession46%

11Total Shots11

6Corners5

13Fouls6

Shots

11Total Shots11

5On Target3

5Off Target6

1Blocked2

10Inside Box8

1Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

582Total Passes495

500Accurate Passes417

86%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls6

2Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1