Leicester 0–1 Manchester United: Result & Stats

Leicester

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Manchester United

J. Sancho 23'

9/1/2022

Premier League · Round 5King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Leicester39%

×Draw25%

Manchester United36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeicesterExpected goals in this matchManchester United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.38

Leicester

1.43

Manchester United

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 27 away

1.33

creates per match

1.36

1.39

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Leicester

1.33

Manchester United

1.36

allows per match

Leicester

1.39

Manchester United

1.52

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Leicester-0.19scores less

Manchester United+0.08on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Manchester United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Leicester or draw

64%

Leicester or Manchester United

75%

Draw or Manchester United

61%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+

18%

Manchester United wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals

76%

Leicester 2+ goals

42%

Leicester 3+ goals

17%

Manchester United 1+ goals

75%

Manchester United 2+ goals

40%

Manchester United 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)

52%

Manchester United (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.39 · 7 matches

Manchester United away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.52 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.33 + Manchester United defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.43

Manchester United attack 1.36 + Leicester defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Leicester scores more

39%

level

25%

Manchester United scores more

36%

Leicester at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

J. Evans

Leicester · D

7.6

Match Events

23'

J. Sancho↳ M. Rashford

28'

43'

49'

59'

68'

Cristiano Ronaldo← J. Sancho

76'

K. Ịheanachọ← Y. Tielemans

87'

James Maddison

87'

P. Daka← J. Vardy

87'

Fred← M. Rashford

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeicesterManchester

Overview

54%Possession46%

10Total Shots9

1Corners3

7Fouls15

Shots

10Total Shots9

2On Target2

5Off Target5

3Blocked2

2Inside Box7

8Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

595Total Passes513

487Accurate Passes400

82%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls15

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2