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Leicester vs Manchester United — Premier League 2026

Leicester
Leicester
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Manchester United
Manchester United
P. Daka 90+1'
J. Vardy 83'
Ç. Söyüncü 78'
Y. Tielemans 31'
M. Rashford 82'
M. Greenwood 19'
10/16/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Leicester39%
×Draw25%
Manchester United36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leicester
1.43
Manchester United
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 27 away

creates per match

Leicester
1.33
Manchester United
1.36

allows per match

Leicester
1.39
Manchester United
1.52

finishing

Leicester-0.19scores less
Manchester United+0.08on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Manchester United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Leicester or draw
64%
Leicester or Manchester United
75%
Draw or Manchester United
61%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+
18%
Manchester United wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals
76%
Leicester 2+ goals
42%
Leicester 3+ goals
17%
Manchester United 1+ goals
75%
Manchester United 2+ goals
40%
Manchester United 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)
52%
Manchester United (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.39 · 7 matches

Manchester United away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.52 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.33 + Manchester United defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.43

Manchester United attack 1.36 + Leicester defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Leicester scores more
39%
level
25%
Manchester United scores more
36%

Leicester at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
Y. TielemansLeicesterLeicester · M
8.5

Match Events

19'
M. Greenwood↳ Bruno Fernandes
31'
Y. Tielemans↳ K. Iheanacho
52'
Victor Lindelöf
65'
M. Rashford← J. Sancho
73'
Ayoze Pérez← J. Maddison
77'
P. Daka← K. Iheanacho
78'
Ç. Söyüncü↳ Ayoze Pérez
80'
S. McTominay← N. Matić
80'
J. Lingard← M. Greenwood
82'
M. Rashford↳ V. Lindelöf
83'
J. Vardy↳ Ayoze Pérez
84'
Aaron Wan-Bissaka
86'
Paul Pogba
88'
J. Vestergaard← J. Evans
90+1'
P. Daka

Possession

49%Leicester

Shots

22Leicester

Pass accuracy

50%Leicester

Statistics

LeicesterManchester
Overview
49%Possession51%
22Total Shots18
4Corners3
5Fouls17
Shots
22Total Shots18
11On Target6
6Off Target9
5Blocked3
13Inside Box6
9Outside Box12
Passing
49%Possession51%
499Total Passes517
425Accurate Passes445
85%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
4Saves7
Discipline
5Fouls17
0Yellow Cards3
2Offsides3

Premier League: Leicester 4–2 Manchester United

Leicester beat Manchester United 4-2 in Premier League on October 16, 2021.

Goals: M. Greenwood (19'), Y. Tielemans (31'), Ç. Söyüncü (78'), M. Rashford (82'), J. Vardy (83'), P. Daka (90+1').

Manchester United controlled possession (51%) and registered 18 shots to 22.

The match was played at King Power Stadium in Leicester, Leicestershire.