Manchester United 1–2 Leicester: Result & Stats

Manchester United

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Leicester

M. Greenwood 15'

Ç. Söyüncü 66'

L. Thomas 10'

5/11/2021

Premier League · Round 36Old Trafford

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Manchester United53%

×Draw20%

Leicester26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester UnitedExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

1.52

Manchester United

2.22

Leicester

1.52

Manchester United creates 46% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 6 away

2.15

creates per match

1.92

1.13

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Manchester United

2.15

Leicester

1.92

allows per match

Manchester United

1.13

Leicester

2.30

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Manchester United-0.22scores less

Leicester-0.25scores less

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester United ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Manchester United or draw

74%

Manchester United or Leicester

80%

Draw or Leicester

47%

Winning margin

Manchester United wins by 2+

32%

Leicester wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Manchester United 1+ goals

89%

Manchester United 2+ goals

65%

Manchester United 3+ goals

38%

Leicester 1+ goals

78%

Leicester 2+ goals

45%

Leicester 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Manchester United (draw refunded)

67%

Leicester (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester United at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.13 · 28 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.92, concedes 2.30 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester United attack 2.15 + Leicester defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.22

Leicester attack 1.92 + Manchester United defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Manchester United scores more

53%

level

20%

Leicester scores more

26%

Manchester United at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Manchester United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

N. Matić

Manchester United · M

7.7

Match Events

10'

L. Thomas↳ Y. Tielemans

15'

M. Greenwood↳ A. Diallo

65'

J. Maddison← Ayoze Pérez

66'

M. Rashford← A. Elanga

66'

E. Cavani← M. Greenwood

66'

Ç. Söyüncü↳ M. Albrighton

78'

Bruno Fernandes← A. Diallo

80'

H. Choudhury← J. Vardy

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterLeicester

Overview

53%Possession47%

4Total Shots12

3Corners4

9Fouls12

Shots

4Total Shots12

1On Target3

3Off Target3

0Blocked6

4Inside Box4

0Outside Box8

Passing

53%Possession47%

561Total Passes490

462Accurate Passes404

82%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

9Fouls12

3Offsides0

Match Recap: Manchester United vs Leicester

Leicester beat Manchester United 2-1 in Premier League on May 11, 2021.

Goals: L. Thomas (10'), M. Greenwood (15'), Ç. Söyüncü (66').

Manchester United controlled possession (53%) and registered 4 shots to 12.

The match was played at Old Trafford in Manchester.

Manchester United vs Leicester — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Manchester United vs Leicester