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Mallorca vs Albacete — Segunda División 2018

Mallorca
Mallorcaadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Albacete
Albacete
Dani Rodríguez 89'
L. Suárez 23'
6/13/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsIberostar Estadi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Mallorca51%
×Draw27%
Albacete22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mallorca
1.45
Albacete
0.84

Mallorca creates 73% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 152 away

creates per match

Mallorca
1.57
Albacete
1.04

allows per match

Mallorca
0.65
Albacete
1.33

finishing

Mallorca+0.00on par
Albacete+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mallorca ↓

Albacete →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mallorca or draw
78%
Mallorca or Albacete
73%
Draw or Albacete
49%

Winning margin

Mallorca wins by 2+
26%
Albacete wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mallorca 1+ goals
77%
Mallorca 2+ goals
42%
Mallorca 3+ goals
18%
Albacete 1+ goals
57%
Albacete 2+ goals
21%
Albacete 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mallorca (draw refunded)
70%
Albacete (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mallorca at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.65 · 46 matches

Albacete away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.33 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mallorca attack 1.57 + Albacete defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.45

Albacete attack 1.04 + Mallorca defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mallorca scores more
51%
level
27%
Albacete scores more
22%

Mallorca at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Mallorca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
P. EstupiñánMallorcaMallorca · D
7.9

Match Events

19'
Nicolas Gorosito
23'
L. Suárez↳ Abdón Prats
59'
Dani Rodriguez
61'
Rey Manaj
67'
J. Acuña← R. Manaj
72'
Ariday Cabrera← L. Suárez
75'
Álex López← Abdón Prats
77'
Salva Sevilla
82'
M. Malsa← Néstor Susaeta
86'
Eugeni Valderrama← J. Acuña
88'
Mickael Malsa
89'
Dani Rodríguez
90'
Daniel Torres
90+1'
I. Mohammed← Salva Sevilla

Possession

42%Mallorca

Shots

18Mallorca

Pass accuracy

50%Mallorca

Statistics

MallorcaAlbacete
Overview
42%Possession58%
18Total Shots7
5Corners6
20Fouls16
Shots
18Total Shots7
8On Target0
9Off Target4
1Blocked3
8Inside Box3
10Outside Box4
Passing
42%Possession58%
303Total Passes408
232Accurate Passes316
77%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
0Saves6
Discipline
20Fouls16
2Yellow Cards4
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Mallorca vs Albacete

Mallorca beat Albacete 2-0 in Segunda División on June 13, 2019.

Goals: L. Suárez (23'), Dani Rodríguez (89').

Albacete controlled possession (58%) and registered 7 shots to 18.

The match was played at Iberostar Estadi in Palma.