Mallorca 1–3 Albacete: Result & Stats

Mallorca

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Albacete

J. Lago 51'

J. Acuña 90', 60'

R. Manaj 3'

9/23/2018

Segunda División · Round 6Iberostar Estadi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Mallorca51%

×Draw27%

Albacete22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MallorcaExpected goals in this matchAlbacete

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.84

Mallorca

1.45

Albacete

0.84

Mallorca creates 73% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 152 away

1.57

creates per match

1.04

0.65

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Mallorca

1.57

Albacete

1.04

allows per match

Mallorca

0.65

Albacete

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mallorca+0.00on par

Albacete+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mallorca ↓

Albacete →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Mallorca or draw

78%

Mallorca or Albacete

73%

Draw or Albacete

49%

Winning margin

Mallorca wins by 2+

26%

Albacete wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Mallorca 1+ goals

77%

Mallorca 2+ goals

42%

Mallorca 3+ goals

18%

Albacete 1+ goals

57%

Albacete 2+ goals

21%

Albacete 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Mallorca (draw refunded)

70%

Albacete (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mallorca at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.65 · 46 matches

Albacete away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.33 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mallorca attack 1.57 + Albacete defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.45

Albacete attack 1.04 + Mallorca defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mallorca scores more

51%

level

27%

Albacete scores more

22%

Mallorca at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Mallorca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

J. Acuña

Albacete · F

8.6

Match Events

3'

R. Manaj↳ R. Zozulya

24'

J. Acuña← Néstor Susaeta

39'

Álvaro Tejero

41'

Fran Garcia Solsona

45'

Salva Sevilla

45+11'

M. Valjent← Xisco Campos

48'

Raillo

51'

Dani Rodríguez← Carlos Castro

51'

J. Lago↳ Salva Ruiz

55'

Dani Rodriguez

60'

J. Acuña↳ Fran García

63'

Alex López

73'

M. Ndockyt← Ariday Cabrera

73'

J. Bela← R. Manaj

83'

Barri← Aleix Febas

90'

J. Acuña

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MallorcaAlbacete

Overview

47%Possession53%

17Total Shots19

5Corners1

19Fouls18

Shots

17Total Shots19

4On Target11

6Off Target8

7Blocked0

8Inside Box12

9Outside Box7

Passing

47%Possession53%

406Total Passes466

341Accurate Passes389

84%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

8Saves3

Discipline

19Fouls18

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

2Offsides2

Segunda División: Mallorca 1–3 Albacete

Albacete beat Mallorca 3-1 in Segunda División on September 23, 2018.

Goals: R. Manaj (3'), J. Lago (51'), J. Acuña (60', 90').

Albacete controlled possession (53%) and registered 19 shots to 17.

The match was played at Iberostar Estadi in Palma.

Mallorca vs Albacete — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Mallorca 1–3 Albacete