Albacete 0–1 Mallorca: Result & Stats

Albacete

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mallorca

A. Ndiaye 59'

2/5/2021

Segunda División · Round 24Estadio Carlos Belmonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Albacete37%

×Draw30%

Mallorca33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlbaceteExpected goals in this matchMallorca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.01

Albacete

1.08

Mallorca

1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 150 home / 45 away

1.25

creates per match

0.93

1.09

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Albacete

1.25

Mallorca

0.93

allows per match

Albacete

1.09

Mallorca

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albacete+0.00on par

Mallorca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete ↓

Mallorca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Albacete or draw

67%

Albacete or Mallorca

70%

Draw or Mallorca

63%

Winning margin

Albacete wins by 2+

15%

Mallorca wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Albacete 1+ goals

66%

Albacete 2+ goals

29%

Albacete 3+ goals

10%

Mallorca 1+ goals

64%

Mallorca 2+ goals

27%

Mallorca 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Albacete (draw refunded)

53%

Mallorca (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.09 · 150 matches

Mallorca away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete attack 1.25 + Mallorca defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.08

Mallorca attack 0.93 + Albacete defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Albacete scores more

37%

level

30%

Mallorca scores more

33%

Albacete at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Albacete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

Dani Rodríguez

Mallorca · M

7.6

Match Events

12'

Nicolás Gorosito

37'

Nicolás Gorosito

37'

Nicolás Gorosito

42'

I. Kecojević← Manu Fuster

44'

Abdón Prats

45'

Iñigo Ruiz De Galarreta

54'

B. Cufré← Brian Oliván

54'

Febas← Ruiz de Galarreta

54'

Álvaro Giménez← Abdón Prats

59'

A. Ndiaye↳ Dani Rodríguez

62'

Cedric Teguia← Diego Caballo

71'

Jean Mvondo

75'

Víctor Mollejo← A. Ndiaye

76'

P. Diamanka← E. İsrafilov

76'

Ortuño← R. Zozulya

90'

Franco Russo

90'

L. Junior← Jordi Mboula

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlbaceteMallorca

Overview

29%Possession71%

7Total Shots13

6Corners5

14Fouls19

Shots

7Total Shots13

0On Target2

4Off Target8

3Blocked3

6Inside Box6

1Outside Box7

Passing

29%Possession71%

196Total Passes478

125Accurate Passes409

64%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

14Fouls19

3Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1