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Albacete vs Mallorca — Segunda División 2018

Albacete
Albaceteadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mallorca
Mallorca
J. Bela 16'
6/16/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsCarlos Belmonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Albacete37%
×Draw30%
Mallorca33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albacete
1.08
Mallorca
1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 150 home / 45 away

creates per match

Albacete
1.25
Mallorca
0.93

allows per match

Albacete
1.09
Mallorca
0.91

finishing

Albacete+0.00on par
Mallorca+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete ↓

Mallorca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Albacete or draw
67%
Albacete or Mallorca
70%
Draw or Mallorca
63%

Winning margin

Albacete wins by 2+
15%
Mallorca wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Albacete 1+ goals
66%
Albacete 2+ goals
29%
Albacete 3+ goals
10%
Mallorca 1+ goals
64%
Mallorca 2+ goals
27%
Mallorca 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Albacete (draw refunded)
53%
Mallorca (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.09 · 150 matches

Mallorca away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete attack 1.25 + Mallorca defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.08

Mallorca attack 0.93 + Albacete defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Albacete scores more
37%
level
30%
Mallorca scores more
33%

Albacete at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Albacete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
Tomeu NadalAlbaceteAlbacete · G
8.2

Match Events

16'
J. Bela
26'
Marc Pedraza
32'
Raillo
46'
José Caro← N. Gorosito
64'
Daniel Torres
65'
Álex López← Abdón Prats
69'
Barri← Aleix Febas
73'
Fran Garcia Solsona
74'
Stoichkov← L. Suárez
84'
Néstor Susaeta← J. Bela
86'
Álvaro Tejero
90'
Lago Júnior
90+2'
Ariday Cabrera← J. Lago

Possession

51%Albacete

Shots

17Albacete

Pass accuracy

48%Albacete

Statistics

AlbaceteMallorca
Overview
51%Possession49%
17Total Shots16
4Corners4
13Fouls12
Shots
17Total Shots16
5On Target5
8Off Target7
4Blocked4
12Inside Box11
5Outside Box5
Passing
51%Possession49%
369Total Passes348
266Accurate Passes268
72%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
5Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls12
3Yellow Cards3
0Offsides3

Segunda División: Albacete 1–0 Mallorca

Albacete beat Mallorca 1-0 in Segunda División on June 16, 2019.

Goals: J. Bela (16').

Albacete controlled possession (51%) and registered 17 shots to 16.

The match was played at Carlos Belmonte in Albacete.