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Malaga vs Granada CF — Segunda División 2018

Malaga
Malaga
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Granada CF
Granada CF
Chupe 20', 14'
P. Aleman 51'
P. Casadesus 30'
9/6/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 4Estadio La Rosaleda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Malaga41%
×Draw29%
Granada CF30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malaga
1.21
Granada CF
1.00

Malaga creates 21% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 84 away

creates per match

Malaga
1.17
Granada CF
1.08

allows per match

Malaga
0.91
Granada CF
1.24

finishing

Malaga+0.00on par
Granada CF+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga ↓

Granada CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Malaga or draw
70%
Malaga or Granada CF
71%
Draw or Granada CF
59%

Winning margin

Malaga wins by 2+
18%
Granada CF wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Malaga 1+ goals
70%
Malaga 2+ goals
34%
Malaga 3+ goals
12%
Granada CF 1+ goals
63%
Granada CF 2+ goals
26%
Granada CF 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Malaga (draw refunded)
57%
Granada CF (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.91 · 150 matches

Granada CF away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.24 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga attack 1.17 + Granada CF defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Granada CF attack 1.08 + Malaga defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Malaga scores more
41%
level
29%
Granada CF scores more
30%

Malaga at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
ChupeMalagaMalaga · F
8.3

Match Events

14'
Chupe↳ Juanpe
20'
Chupe↳ D. Larrubia
30'
P. Casadesus↳ M. Bouldini
45+1'
Mohamed Bouldini
46'
J. Gabilondo← C. Puga
46'
J. Pascual← M. Bouldini
51'
P. Aleman
61'
J. Lobete← J. Munoz
61'
C. Dotor← R. Rodriguez
64'
Francisco Montero
68'
Juanpe
69'
R. Alcaraz← S. Ruiz
69'
J. M. Arnaiz← P. Saenz
73'
D. Hormigo← A. Sola
78'
A. Ochoa← D. Larrubia
83'
S. Rodelas← P. Casadesus
85'
E. Jauregi← Chupe

Possession

54%Malaga

Shots

8Malaga

Pass accuracy

50%Malaga

Statistics

MalagaGranada
Overview
54%Possession46%
8Total Shots18
2Corners1
16Fouls13
Shots
8Total Shots18
3On Target7
4Off Target7
1Blocked4
6Inside Box10
2Outside Box8
Passing
54%Possession46%
391Total Passes331
314Accurate Passes262
80%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
16Fouls13
2Yellow Cards1
0Offsides4

Match Recap: Malaga vs Granada CF

Malaga and Granada CF drew 2-2 in Segunda División on September 6, 2025.

Goals: Chupe (14', 20'), P. Casadesus (30'), P. Aleman (51').

Malaga controlled possession (54%) and registered 8 shots to 18.

The match was played at Estadio La Rosaleda in Malaga.