Malaga 1–0 Granada CF: Result & Stats

Malaga

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Granada CF

Antoñito Cordero 28' (pen)

5/3/2025

Segunda División · Round 38Estadio La Rosaleda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Malaga41%

×Draw29%

Granada CF30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MalagaExpected goals in this matchGranada CF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.00

Malaga

1.21

Granada CF

1.00

Malaga creates 21% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 84 away

1.17

creates per match

1.08

0.91

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Malaga

1.17

Granada CF

1.08

allows per match

Malaga

0.91

Granada CF

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malaga+0.00on par

Granada CF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga ↓

Granada CF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Malaga or draw

70%

Malaga or Granada CF

71%

Draw or Granada CF

59%

Winning margin

Malaga wins by 2+

18%

Granada CF wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Malaga 1+ goals

70%

Malaga 2+ goals

34%

Malaga 3+ goals

12%

Granada CF 1+ goals

63%

Granada CF 2+ goals

26%

Granada CF 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Malaga (draw refunded)

57%

Granada CF (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.91 · 150 matches

Granada CF away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.24 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga attack 1.17 + Granada CF defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Granada CF attack 1.08 + Malaga defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Malaga scores more

41%

level

29%

Granada CF scores more

30%

Malaga at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

Antoñito Cordero

Malaga · M

8.3

Match Events

28'

Antoñito CorderoPenalty

43'

Luismi

46'

Borja Bastón← M. Hongla

54'

Miguel Ángel Brau

60'

Daniel Sánchez

61'

Georgiy Tsitaishvili

66'

Manu Trigueros← Sergio Ruiz

72'

Víctor García← Dani Sánchez

72'

Manu Molina← Luismi

74'

Manu Lama← Miguel Brau

75'

Reinier← Rubén Sánchez

75'

Ricard Sánchez← A. Rebbach

79'

Puga← Antoñito Cordero

85'

Y. Rahmani← Julen Lobete

85'

Dioni← Chupe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MalagaGranada

Overview

52%Possession48%

16Total Shots7

8Corners4

16Fouls21

Shots

16Total Shots7

6On Target0

8Off Target5

2Blocked2

11Inside Box6

5Outside Box1

Passing

52%Possession48%

312Total Passes296

257Accurate Passes235

82%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

16Fouls21

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2