Granada CF 1–0 Malaga: Result & Stats

Granada CF

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Malaga

Sergio Ruiz 90'

2/27/2023

Segunda División · Round 29Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Granada CF34%

×Draw24%

Malaga42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Granada CFExpected goals in this matchMalaga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.59

Granada CF

1.41

Malaga

1.59

Malaga creates 13% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.57

creates per match

2.14

1.04

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Granada CF

1.57

Malaga

2.14

allows per match

Granada CF

1.04

Malaga

1.25

+0.43scores more than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Granada CF+0.43scores more

Malaga-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granada CF ↓

Malaga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Granada CF or draw

58%

Granada CF or Malaga

76%

Draw or Malaga

66%

Winning margin

Granada CF wins by 2+

15%

Malaga wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Granada CF 1+ goals

76%

Granada CF 2+ goals

41%

Granada CF 3+ goals

17%

Malaga 1+ goals

80%

Malaga 2+ goals

47%

Malaga 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Granada CF (draw refunded)

45%

Malaga (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granada CF at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.04 · 7 matches

Malaga away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.25 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granada CF attack 1.57 + Malaga defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.41

Malaga attack 2.14 + Granada CF defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Granada CF scores more

34%

level

24%

Malaga scores more

42%

Malaga at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

E. Cabaco

Granada CF · D

7.3

Match Events

29'

Quini

45+2'

Carlos Neva

53'

Raúl Torrente← Y. Bodiger

53'

Bryan Zaragoza← Quini

54'

Sergio Ruiz← Óscar Melendo

68'

Aleix Febas

69'

Fran Sol← Rubén Castro

69'

Javi Jiménez← Cristian Gutiérrez

79'

F. Diédhiou← José Callejón

79'

Antonio Puertas← E. Cabaco

79'

Álex Gallar← Fran Villalba

79'

Luis Muñoz← Alberto Escassi

80'

Ignasi Miquel

89'

Famara Diédhiou

90'

Loren Zúñiga← Aleix Febas

90'

Sergio Ruiz↳ M. Uzuni

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GranadaMalaga

Overview

62%Possession38%

10Total Shots7

3Corners6

7Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots7

3On Target2

5Off Target4

2Blocked1

8Inside Box4

2Outside Box3

Passing

62%Possession38%

515Total Passes321

428Accurate Passes238

83%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls9

4Yellow Cards1

3Offsides2

Match Recap: Granada CF vs Malaga

Granada CF beat Malaga 1-0 in Segunda División on February 27, 2023.

Goals: Sergio Ruiz (90').

Granada CF controlled possession (62%) and registered 10 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes in Granada.

Granada CF vs Malaga — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Granada CF vs Malaga