Granada CF 2–2 Malaga: Result & Stats

Granada CF

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Malaga

M. Uzuni 77'

Carlos Neva 56'

Nélson Monte 90+3'

Antonio Cordero 60'

9/20/2024

Segunda División · Round 6Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Granada CF34%

×Draw24%

Malaga42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Granada CFExpected goals in this matchMalaga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.59

Granada CF

1.41

Malaga

1.59

Malaga creates 13% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.57

creates per match

2.14

1.04

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Granada CF

1.57

Malaga

2.14

allows per match

Granada CF

1.04

Malaga

1.25

+0.43scores more than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Granada CF+0.43scores more

Malaga-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granada CF ↓

Malaga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Granada CF or draw

58%

Granada CF or Malaga

76%

Draw or Malaga

66%

Winning margin

Granada CF wins by 2+

15%

Malaga wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Granada CF 1+ goals

76%

Granada CF 2+ goals

41%

Granada CF 3+ goals

17%

Malaga 1+ goals

80%

Malaga 2+ goals

47%

Malaga 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Granada CF (draw refunded)

45%

Malaga (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granada CF at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.04 · 7 matches

Malaga away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.25 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granada CF attack 1.57 + Malaga defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.41

Malaga attack 2.14 + Granada CF defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Granada CF scores more

34%

level

24%

Malaga scores more

42%

Malaga at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

Antonio Cordero

Malaga · M

8.7

Match Events

28'

Manu Trigueros

46'

Gonzalo Villar← Manu Trigueros

56'

Carlos Neva↳ M. Hongla

60'

Antonio Cordero↳ Dioni

63'

Sergio Castel← Dioni

69'

K. Jóźwiak← G. Tsitaishvili

69'

T. Corbeanu← Reinier

74'

Miguel Rubio

76'

Juanpe← A. Moloney

76'

Julen Lobete← Y. Rahmani

77'

M. Uzuni

79'

Sergio Castel Martínez

82'

Luismi

83'

Dani Lorenzo← Einar Galilea

83'

Chupe← Luismi

84'

Miguel Brau← Carlos Neva

89'

Daniel Sánchez

90+8'

Shon WeissmanMissed penalty

90+1'

Theo Corbeanu

90+7'

Nélson Monte

90+4'

Chupete

90+1'

S. Weissman← M. Uzuni

90+3'

Nélson Monte↳ Antonio Cordero

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GranadaMalaga

Overview

50%Possession50%

12Total Shots13

5Corners7

17Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots13

6On Target5

4Off Target6

2Blocked2

10Inside Box7

2Outside Box6

Passing

50%Possession50%

406Total Passes421

331Accurate Passes345

82%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls14

3Yellow Cards5

0Offsides2

Segunda División: Granada CF 2–2 Malaga

Granada CF and Malaga drew 2-2 in Segunda División on September 20, 2024.

Goals: Carlos Neva (56'), Antonio Cordero (60'), M. Uzuni (77'), Nélson Monte (90+3').

Granada CF controlled possession (50%) and registered 12 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes in Granada.

Granada CF vs Malaga — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Granada CF 2–2 Malaga