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Malaga vs Cadiz — Segunda División 2018

Malaga
Malaga
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cadiz
Cadiz
S. Ortuno 18'
9/21/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 6Estadio La Rosaleda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Malaga41%
×Draw29%
Cadiz31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malaga
1.20
Cadiz
1.00

Malaga creates 20% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 84 away

creates per match

Malaga
1.17
Cadiz
1.08

allows per match

Malaga
0.91
Cadiz
1.23

finishing

Malaga+0.00on par
Cadiz+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga ↓

Cadiz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Malaga or draw
69%
Malaga or Cadiz
71%
Draw or Cadiz
59%

Winning margin

Malaga wins by 2+
17%
Cadiz wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Malaga 1+ goals
70%
Malaga 2+ goals
34%
Malaga 3+ goals
12%
Cadiz 1+ goals
63%
Cadiz 2+ goals
26%
Cadiz 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Malaga (draw refunded)
57%
Cadiz (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.91 · 150 matches

Cadiz away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.23 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga attack 1.17 + Cadiz defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.20

Cadiz attack 1.08 + Malaga defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Malaga scores more
41%
level
29%
Cadiz scores more
31%

Malaga at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
D. LarrubiaMalagaMalaga · M
8.3

Match Events

18'
S. Ortuno
31'
J. Lobete← A. Nino
46'
D. Sanchez← V. Garcia
46'
C. Dotor← D. Brasanac
59'
Einar Galilea
65'
B. Ocampo← E. Ugiagbe
70'
Y. Diarra← I. Tabatadze
70'
A. Fernandez← Suso
71'
R. Rodriguez← Juanpe
82'
E. Jauregi← J. Montero
82'
D. Camara← A. Pascual
90+5'
Iza Carcelén
90+2'
Mario Climent

Possession

62%Malaga

Shots

17Malaga

Pass accuracy

54%Malaga

Statistics

MalagaCadiz
Overview
62%Possession38%
17Total Shots7
5Corners2
10Fouls11
Shots
17Total Shots7
5On Target3
4Off Target3
8Blocked1
9Inside Box3
8Outside Box4
Passing
62%Possession38%
488Total Passes311
405Accurate Passes224
83%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
10Fouls11
1Yellow Cards2
5Offsides0

Match Recap: Malaga vs Cadiz

Cadiz beat Malaga 1-0 in Segunda División on September 21, 2025.

Goals: S. Ortuno (18').

Malaga controlled possession (62%) and registered 17 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio La Rosaleda in Malaga.