Cadiz 0–1 Malaga: Result & Stats | Segunda División

Cadiz

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Malaga

Adrián 51' (pen)

2/16/2020

Segunda División · Round 28Estadio Ramón de Carranza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Cadiz25%

×Draw23%

Malaga51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CadizExpected goals in this matchMalaga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.77

Cadiz

1.18

Malaga

1.77

Malaga creates 50% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.10

creates per match

2.14

1.39

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Cadiz

1.10

Malaga

2.14

allows per match

Cadiz

1.39

Malaga

1.25

-0.53scores less than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Cadiz-0.53scores less

Malaga-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cadiz ↓

Malaga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Cadiz or draw

49%

Cadiz or Malaga

77%

Draw or Malaga

75%

Winning margin

Cadiz wins by 2+

10%

Malaga wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Cadiz 1+ goals

69%

Cadiz 2+ goals

33%

Cadiz 3+ goals

12%

Malaga 1+ goals

83%

Malaga 2+ goals

53%

Malaga 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Cadiz (draw refunded)

33%

Malaga (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cadiz at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.39 · 7 matches

Malaga away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.25 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cadiz attack 1.10 + Malaga defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

Malaga attack 2.14 + Cadiz defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cadiz scores more

25%

level

23%

Malaga scores more

51%

Malaga at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Juan Carlos

Malaga · D

7.5

Match Events

36'

41'

42'

46'

46'

Edu Ramos← F. Malbašić

51'

AdriánPenalty

55'

Ismael Casas

64'

Dani Pacheco← J. Añor

71'

Nano Mesa

74'

José Jurado← A. Espino

75'

B. Boulhroud← Antoñín Cortés

84'

Dani Pacheco

86'

Jose Morente

88'

Renato Santos← Tete Morente

90'

Alberto Perea

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CadizMalaga

Overview

58%Possession42%

10Total Shots7

9Corners3

19Fouls21

Shots

10Total Shots7

0On Target2

5Off Target2

5Blocked3

7Inside Box4

3Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

415Total Passes299

325Accurate Passes210

78%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

19Fouls21

4Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Cadiz vs Malaga

Malaga beat Cadiz 1-0 in Segunda División on February 16, 2020.

Goals: Adrián (51' pen).

Cadiz controlled possession (58%) and registered 10 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Ramón de Carranza in Cádiz.

Cadiz vs Malaga — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Cadiz vs Malaga