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Cadiz vs Malaga — Segunda División 2018

Cadiz
Cadiz
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Malaga
Malaga
D. Lorenzo 47'
Chupe 33', 22'
3/21/2026Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 31JP Financial Estadio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Cadiz25%
×Draw23%
Malaga51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cadiz
1.18
Malaga
1.77

Malaga creates 50% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Cadiz
1.10
Malaga
2.14

allows per match

Cadiz
1.39
Malaga
1.25

finishing

Cadiz-0.53scores less
Malaga-0.14scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cadiz ↓

Malaga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Cadiz or draw
49%
Cadiz or Malaga
77%
Draw or Malaga
75%

Winning margin

Cadiz wins by 2+
10%
Malaga wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Cadiz 1+ goals
69%
Cadiz 2+ goals
33%
Cadiz 3+ goals
12%
Malaga 1+ goals
83%
Malaga 2+ goals
53%
Malaga 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Cadiz (draw refunded)
33%
Malaga (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cadiz at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.39 · 7 matches

Malaga away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.25 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cadiz attack 1.10 + Malaga defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

Malaga attack 2.14 + Cadiz defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cadiz scores more
25%
level
23%
Malaga scores more
51%

Malaga at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
ChupeMalagaMalaga · F
9.5

Match Events

22'
Chupe↳ C. Dotor
33'
Chupe
46'
B. Kovacevic← M. Diakite
46'
D. Camara← A. Cordero
47'
D. Lorenzo↳ D. Sanchez
65'
V. Garcia← D. Sanchez
66'
J. Dorrio← J. Munoz
68'
R. Marti← A. Pascual
68'
A. Ochoa← C. Dotor
76'
J. de la Rosa← I. Carcelen
76'
J. Domina← Suso
79'
E. Jauregi← Chupe
79'
J. Lobete← D. Larrubia
80'
Jeronimo Domina
87'
Roger Martí

Possession

46%Cadiz

Shots

7Cadiz

Pass accuracy

48%Cadiz

Statistics

CadizMalaga
Overview
46%Possession54%
7Total Shots20
0.51Expected Goals (xG)1.98
4Corners2
15Fouls7
Shots
7Total Shots20
1On Target6
5Off Target8
1Blocked6
6Inside Box11
1Outside Box9
Passing
46%Possession54%
424Total Passes517
342Accurate Passes449
81%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
15Fouls7
2Yellow Cards0
4Offsides1

Segunda División: Cadiz 0–3 Malaga

Malaga beat Cadiz 3-0 in Segunda División on March 21, 2026.

Goals: Chupe (22', 33'), D. Lorenzo (47').

Malaga controlled possession (54%) and registered 20 shots to 7.

The match was played at JP Financial Estadio in Cadiz.