Cadiz 2–2 Malaga: Result & Stats | Segunda División

Cadiz

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Malaga

Javi Ontiveros 41', 23'

Sergio Castel 82'

Dioni 54'

10/12/2024

Segunda División · Round 9Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Cadiz25%

×Draw23%

Malaga51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CadizExpected goals in this matchMalaga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.77

Cadiz

1.18

Malaga

1.77

Malaga creates 50% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.10

creates per match

2.14

1.39

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Cadiz

1.10

Malaga

2.14

allows per match

Cadiz

1.39

Malaga

1.25

-0.53scores less than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Cadiz-0.53scores less

Malaga-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cadiz ↓

Malaga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Cadiz or draw

49%

Cadiz or Malaga

77%

Draw or Malaga

75%

Winning margin

Cadiz wins by 2+

10%

Malaga wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Cadiz 1+ goals

69%

Cadiz 2+ goals

33%

Cadiz 3+ goals

12%

Malaga 1+ goals

83%

Malaga 2+ goals

53%

Malaga 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Cadiz (draw refunded)

33%

Malaga (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cadiz at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.39 · 7 matches

Malaga away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.25 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cadiz attack 1.10 + Malaga defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

Malaga attack 2.14 + Cadiz defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cadiz scores more

25%

level

23%

Malaga scores more

51%

Malaga at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Javi Ontiveros

Cadiz · M

9.9

Match Events

16'

Víctor Chust

23'

Javi Ontiveros

41'

Javi Ontiveros↳ B. Ocampo

46'

Dani Lorenzo← Gabilondo

46'

Puga← Sangalli

54'

Dioni

58'

Y. Rahmani← Kevin Medina

63'

Rubén Sobrino← Carlos Fernández

72'

Iván Alejo← Javi Ontiveros

72'

Fede San Emeterio← B. Ocampo

72'

Sergio Castel← David Larrubia

81'

José de la Rosa← Chris Ramos

81'

Fali← Joseba Zaldúa

81'

Juanpe← Álex Pastor

82'

Sergio Castel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CadizMalaga

Overview

41%Possession59%

15Total Shots13

6Corners4

18Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots13

8On Target7

5Off Target4

2Blocked2

9Inside Box11

6Outside Box2

Passing

41%Possession59%

342Total Passes504

258Accurate Passes423

75%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

6Saves6

Discipline

18Fouls10

1Yellow Cards0

3Offsides4

Segunda División: Cadiz 2–2 Malaga

Cadiz and Malaga drew 2-2 in Segunda División on October 12, 2024.

Goals: Javi Ontiveros (23', 41'), Dioni (54'), Sergio Castel (82').

Malaga controlled possession (59%) and registered 13 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla in Cádiz.

Cadiz vs Malaga — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Cadiz 2–2 Malaga