Malaga 0–1 Atletico Madrid: Result & Stats

Malaga

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Atletico Madrid

A. Griezmann 1'

2/10/2018

La Liga · Round 23La Rosaleda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Malaga29%

×Draw28%

Atletico Madrid43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MalagaExpected goals in this matchAtletico Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.29

Malaga

1.00

Atletico Madrid

1.29

Atletico Madrid creates 29% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 132 away

1.00

creates per match

1.30

1.29

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Malaga

1.00

Atletico Madrid

1.30

allows per match

Malaga

1.29

Atletico Madrid

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malaga+0.00on par

Atletico Madrid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga ↓

Atletico Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Malaga or draw

57%

Malaga or Atletico Madrid

72%

Draw or Atletico Madrid

71%

Winning margin

Malaga wins by 2+

11%

Atletico Madrid wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Malaga 1+ goals

63%

Malaga 2+ goals

26%

Malaga 3+ goals

8%

Atletico Madrid 1+ goals

72%

Atletico Madrid 2+ goals

37%

Atletico Madrid 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Malaga (draw refunded)

40%

Atletico Madrid (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

Atletico Madrid away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.01 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga attack 1.00 + Atletico Madrid defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.00

Atletico Madrid attack 1.30 + Malaga defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Malaga scores more

29%

level

28%

Atletico Madrid scores more

43%

Atletico Madrid at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Atletico Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

A. Griezmann

Atletico Madrid · F

8.1

Match Events

1'

20'

41'

46'

53'

57'

D. Rolan← Keko

60'

Mehdi Lacen

67'

Šime Vrsaljko

70'

T. Partey← Gabi

77'

Fernando Torres← Diego Costa

78'

Youssef En-Nesyri

83'

Samu← F. Ricca

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MalagaAtletico

Overview

47%Possession53%

12Total Shots5

3Corners3

22Fouls19

Shots

12Total Shots5

3On Target1

8Off Target3

1Blocked1

6Inside Box3

6Outside Box2

Passing

47%Possession53%

385Total Passes440

277Accurate Passes323

72%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

22Fouls19

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides3