Malaga vs Atletico Madrid — La Liga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 21+ matches
Malaga29%
Atletico Madrid43%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Atletico Madrid creates 29% more chances
Season form · 21 home / 132 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under60
- Over40
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No54
- Yes46
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Malaga ↓
Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Malaga at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches
Atletico Madrid away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.01 · 132 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Malaga attack 1.00 + Atletico Madrid defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.00
Atletico Madrid attack 1.30 + Malaga defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Atletico Madrid at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Atletico Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
BarcelonaAtletico Madrid
Real Madrid
Valencia
Getafe
Sevilla
Espanyol
Athletic Club
Real Sociedad
Real Betis
Alaves
Eibar
Leganes
Villarreal
Levante
Valladolid
Celta Vigo
Girona
Huesca
Rayo VallecanoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Malaga host Atletico Madrid on Saturday, 1 April 2017 at 18:45. The match is part of the La Liga 2018/2019 season.
La Liga: Malaga 0–2 Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid beat Malaga 2-0 in La Liga on April 1, 2017.
Goals: Koke (26'), Filipe Luis (74').
Malaga controlled possession (63%) and registered 21 shots to 7.
The match was played at La Rosaleda in Malaga.