Atletico Madrid 1–0 Malaga: Result & Stats

Atletico Madrid

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Malaga

Á. Correa 62'

4/23/2016

La Liga · Round 35Vicente Calderón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Atletico Madrid63%

×Draw22%

Malaga14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico MadridExpected goals in this matchMalaga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.72

Atletico Madrid

1.81

Malaga

0.72

Atletico Madrid creates 151% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 25 away

1.91

creates per match

0.76

0.69

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Atletico Madrid

1.91

Malaga

0.76

allows per match

Atletico Madrid

0.69

Malaga

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Madrid+0.00on par

Malaga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Madrid ↓

Malaga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atletico Madrid or draw

86%

Atletico Madrid or Malaga

78%

Draw or Malaga

37%

Winning margin

Atletico Madrid wins by 2+

37%

Malaga wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Atletico Madrid 1+ goals

84%

Atletico Madrid 2+ goals

54%

Atletico Madrid 3+ goals

27%

Malaga 1+ goals

51%

Malaga 2+ goals

16%

Malaga 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Atletico Madrid (draw refunded)

82%

Malaga (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Madrid at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.69 · 134 matches

Malaga away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.72 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Madrid attack 1.91 + Malaga defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.81

Malaga attack 0.76 + Atletico Madrid defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Atletico Madrid scores more

63%

level

22%

Malaga scores more

14%

Atletico Madrid at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Atletico Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

Filipe Luis

Atletico Madrid · D

7.6

Match Events

25'

29'

54'

57'

57'

Á. Correa← Y. Carrasco

59'

G. Castro← Ricardo Horta

62'

J. Añor← Pablo Fornals

62'

Á. Correa↳ Filipe Luis

66'

A. Fernández← A. Griezmann

77'

R. Santa Cruz← D. Čop

82'

Filipe Luís

90'

Recio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoMalaga

Overview

46%Possession54%

14Total Shots7

10Corners4

6Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots7

4On Target4

7Off Target2

3Blocked1

9Inside Box3

5Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

360Total Passes443

253Accurate Passes318

70%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls14

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

3Offsides0