Atletico Madrid vs Malaga — La Liga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 25+ matches
Atletico Madrid63%
Malaga14%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Atletico Madrid creates 151% more chances
Season form · 134 home / 25 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No57
- Yes43
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Atletico Madrid ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Atletico Madrid at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.69 · 134 matches
Malaga away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.72 · 25 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Atletico Madrid attack 1.91 + Malaga defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.81
Malaga attack 0.76 + Atletico Madrid defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.72
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 63%?"
Atletico Madrid at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 63% does not mean "Atletico Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
BarcelonaAtletico Madrid
Real Madrid
Valencia
Getafe
Sevilla
Espanyol
Athletic Club
Real Sociedad
Real Betis
Alaves
Eibar
Leganes
Villarreal
Levante
Valladolid
Celta Vigo
Girona
Huesca
Rayo VallecanoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Atletico Madrid host Malaga on Saturday, 16 September 2017 at 18:45. The match is part of the La Liga 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Atletico Madrid vs Malaga
Atletico Madrid beat Malaga 1-0 in La Liga on September 16, 2017.
Goals: A. Griezmann (61').
Atletico Madrid controlled possession (65%) and registered 17 shots to 9.
The match was played at Estadio Wanda Metropolitano in Madrid.