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Malaga vs Albacete — Segunda División 2018

Malaga
Malaga
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Albacete
Albacete
J. Munoz 54'
2/22/2026Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 27Estadio La Rosaleda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 150+ matches

Malaga42%
×Draw29%
Albacete29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malaga
1.25
Albacete
0.98

Malaga creates 28% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 152 away

creates per match

Malaga
1.17
Albacete
1.04

allows per match

Malaga
0.91
Albacete
1.33

finishing

Malaga+0.00on par
Albacete+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga ↓

Albacete →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Malaga or draw
71%
Malaga or Albacete
71%
Draw or Albacete
58%

Winning margin

Malaga wins by 2+
19%
Albacete wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Malaga 1+ goals
71%
Malaga 2+ goals
36%
Malaga 3+ goals
13%
Albacete 1+ goals
62%
Albacete 2+ goals
26%
Albacete 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Malaga (draw refunded)
59%
Albacete (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.91 · 150 matches

Albacete away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.33 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga attack 1.17 + Albacete defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Albacete attack 1.04 + Malaga defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Malaga scores more
42%
level
29%
Albacete scores more
29%

Malaga at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
J. MunozMalagaMalaga · F
8.5

Match Events

46'
D. Bernabeu← Jogo
46'
V. Valverde← M. Fernandez
49'
Dani Lorenzo
54'
J. Munoz↳ Rafita
70'
Fran Gámez
72'
Lorenzo← F. Gamez
72'
J. Betancor← A. Rubio
72'
S. Obeng← A. Puertas
77'
J. Lobete← J. Munoz
85'
J. Montero← E. Galilea
85'
Juanpe← D. Lorenzo
90+4'
Juanpe
90'
J. Dorrio← C. Dotor
90+1'
E. Jauregi← Chupe

Possession

55%Malaga

Shots

15Malaga

Pass accuracy

51%Malaga

Statistics

MalagaAlbacete
Overview
55%Possession45%
15Total Shots8
4Corners3
13Fouls17
Shots
15Total Shots8
8On Target2
5Off Target4
2Blocked2
12Inside Box6
3Outside Box2
Passing
55%Possession45%
459Total Passes366
386Accurate Passes297
84%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
3Saves7
Discipline
13Fouls17
2Yellow Cards1

Segunda División: Malaga 1–0 Albacete

Malaga beat Albacete 1-0 in Segunda División on February 22, 2026.

Goals: J. Munoz (54').

Malaga controlled possession (55%) and registered 15 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio La Rosaleda in Malaga.