Albacete 2–0 Malaga: Result & Stats

Albacete

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Malaga

Jon Morcillo 20'

C. Kofane 3'

3/15/2025

Segunda División · Round 31Estadio Carlos Belmonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Albacete28%

×Draw24%

Malaga48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlbaceteExpected goals in this matchMalaga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.75

Albacete

1.28

Malaga

1.75

Malaga creates 37% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.31

creates per match

2.14

1.36

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Albacete

1.31

Malaga

2.14

allows per match

Albacete

1.36

Malaga

1.25

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Albacete-0.14scores less

Malaga-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete ↓

Malaga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Albacete or draw

52%

Albacete or Malaga

76%

Draw or Malaga

72%

Winning margin

Albacete wins by 2+

12%

Malaga wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Albacete 1+ goals

72%

Albacete 2+ goals

37%

Albacete 3+ goals

14%

Malaga 1+ goals

83%

Malaga 2+ goals

52%

Malaga 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Albacete (draw refunded)

37%

Malaga (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.36 · 6 matches

Malaga away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.25 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete attack 1.31 + Malaga defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.28

Malaga attack 2.14 + Albacete defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Albacete scores more

28%

level

24%

Malaga scores more

48%

Malaga at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Agus Medina

Albacete · D

7.9

Match Events

3'

C. Kofane↳ Agus Medina

19'

Pablo Sáenz

20'

Jon Morcillo↳ C. Kofane

24'

Christian KofaneCard upgrade

25'

Christian Kofane

26'

Antonio Pacheco

32'

Izan Merino

45+7'

Javi Villar← Pablo Sáenz

46'

R. Baturina← Dioni

46'

A. Moloney← Antoñito Cordero

46'

David Larrubia← Dani Sánchez

58'

Kevin Medina← Julen Lobete

58'

Chupe← Y. Rahmani

66'

N. Touaizi← Juanma García

66'

Javi Moreno← Álvaro Rodríguez

73'

Juanpe← Álex Pastor

76'

Carlos Puga

83'

Jon García← Pepe Sánchez

83'

Ale Meléndez← Riki Rodríguez

86'

Agus Medina

88'

Juanpe

88'

Juan María Alcedo← Jon Morcillo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlbaceteMalaga

Overview

28%Possession72%

11Total Shots21

3Corners8

8Fouls16

Shots

11Total Shots21

3On Target4

6Off Target12

2Blocked5

6Inside Box14

5Outside Box7

Passing

28%Possession72%

178Total Passes445

116Accurate Passes376

65%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

8Fouls16

2Yellow Cards2

2Red Cards1

0Offsides2