Malaga 2–1 Albacete: Result & Stats

Malaga

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Albacete

Antonio Cordero 90+4' (pen)

Dioni 14'

José Carlos Lazo 11'

8/31/2024

Segunda División · Round 3Estadio La Rosaleda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 150+ matches

Malaga42%

×Draw29%

Albacete29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MalagaExpected goals in this matchAlbacete

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.98

Malaga

1.25

Albacete

0.98

Malaga creates 28% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 152 away

1.17

creates per match

1.04

0.91

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Malaga

1.17

Albacete

1.04

allows per match

Malaga

0.91

Albacete

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malaga+0.00on par

Albacete+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga ↓

Albacete →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Malaga or draw

71%

Malaga or Albacete

71%

Draw or Albacete

58%

Winning margin

Malaga wins by 2+

19%

Albacete wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Malaga 1+ goals

71%

Malaga 2+ goals

36%

Malaga 3+ goals

13%

Albacete 1+ goals

62%

Albacete 2+ goals

26%

Albacete 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Malaga (draw refunded)

59%

Albacete (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.91 · 150 matches

Albacete away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.33 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga attack 1.17 + Albacete defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Albacete attack 1.04 + Malaga defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Malaga scores more

42%

level

29%

Albacete scores more

29%

Malaga at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

Antonio Cordero

Malaga · F

8.2

Match Events

11'

José Carlos Lazo↳ Fidel

14'

Dioni↳ Antonio Cordero

16'

17'

28'

39'

39'

43'

Einar Galilea← Dani Lorenzo

46'

Juan María Alcedo← Jaume Costa

46'

Jon Morcillo← José Carlos Lazo

46'

Diego González← Juan Antonio

53'

Alberto QuilesMissed penalty

62'

Luismi← Sangalli

62'

Sergio Castel← Dioni

62'

Dani Sánchez← Víctor García

73'

Manu Molina

74'

Higinio Marín← Alberto Quiles

78'

Juan María Alcedo

80'

Antonio Pacheco← Agus Medina

82'

Gabilondo← Puga

90+1'

Jokin GabilondoPenalty confirmed

90+6'

Javier Rueda

90+4'

Antonio CorderoPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MalagaAlbacete

Overview

44%Possession56%

18Total Shots14

8Corners1

18Fouls19

Shots

18Total Shots14

6On Target6

6Off Target4

6Blocked4

11Inside Box11

7Outside Box3

Passing

44%Possession56%

320Total Passes428

254Accurate Passes357

79%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

18Fouls19

3Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

2Offsides2