Albacete 1–3 Malaga: Result & Stats

Albacete

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Malaga

E. Galilea 37' (OG)

Chupe 90' (pen)

D. Lorenzo 59'

D. Larrubia 52'

12/14/2025

Segunda División · Round 18Estadio Carlos Belmonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Albacete28%

×Draw24%

Malaga48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlbaceteExpected goals in this matchMalaga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.75

Albacete

1.28

Malaga

1.75

Malaga creates 37% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.31

creates per match

2.14

1.36

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Albacete

1.31

Malaga

2.14

allows per match

Albacete

1.36

Malaga

1.25

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Albacete-0.14scores less

Malaga-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete ↓

Malaga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Albacete or draw

52%

Albacete or Malaga

76%

Draw or Malaga

72%

Winning margin

Albacete wins by 2+

12%

Malaga wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Albacete 1+ goals

72%

Albacete 2+ goals

37%

Albacete 3+ goals

14%

Malaga 1+ goals

83%

Malaga 2+ goals

52%

Malaga 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Albacete (draw refunded)

37%

Malaga (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.36 · 6 matches

Malaga away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.25 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete attack 1.31 + Malaga defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.28

Malaga attack 2.14 + Albacete defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Albacete scores more

28%

level

24%

Malaga scores more

48%

Malaga at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Herrero

Malaga · G

8.3

Match Events

37'

E. GalileaOwn goal

46'

H. J. Garcia← Pepe

52'

D. Larrubia

59'

D. Lorenzo↳ I. Merino

65'

Chupe← E. Jauregi

65'

67'

68'

70'

70'

D. Escriche← Agus Medina

70'

Jogo← C. Neva

77'

D. Sanchez← C. Dotor

77'

R. Rodriguez← I. Merino

84'

J. Betancor← R. Rodriguez

88'

D. Murillo← C. Puga

90'

Jon Morcillo

90'

Antonio Pacheco

90'

ChupePenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlbaceteMalaga

Overview

43%Possession57%

11Total Shots12

6Corners5

9Fouls4

Shots

11Total Shots12

5On Target5

5Off Target2

1Blocked5

9Inside Box11

2Outside Box1

Passing

43%Possession57%

356Total Passes484

287Accurate Passes413

81%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls4

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3

Match Recap: Albacete vs Malaga

Malaga beat Albacete 3-1 in Segunda División on December 14, 2025.

Goals: E. Galilea (37' o.g.), D. Larrubia (52'), D. Lorenzo (59'), Chupe (90' pen).

Malaga controlled possession (57%) and registered 12 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Belmonte in Albacete.

Albacete vs Malaga — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Albacete vs Malaga