Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona — State Cup 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 5+ matches
Maccabi Petah Tikva40%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona32%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Maccabi Petah Tikva creates 15% more chances
Season form · 5 home / 6 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under57
- Over43
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Maccabi Petah Tikva ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Maccabi Petah Tikva at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches
Ironi Kiryat Shmona away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Maccabi Petah Tikva attack 1.40 + Ironi Kiryat Shmona defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.28
Ironi Kiryat Shmona attack 1.83 + Maccabi Petah Tikva defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 1.11
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Maccabi Petah Tikva at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Maccabi Petah Tikva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Maccabi Petah Tikva host Ironi Kiryat Shmona on Saturday, 28 December 2024 at 15:00. The match is part of the State Cup 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Maccabi Petah Tikva beat Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2-0 in State Cup on December 28, 2024.
Goals: V. Damaşcan (32' pen), N. Yehoshua (65').
The match was played at HaMoshava Stadium in Petach-Tikva.