Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2–1 Maccabi Petah Tikva

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Maccabi Petah Tikva

A. Stephens 24'

Jardel 14'

T. Glazer 55'

3/15/2025

Ligat Ha'al · Relegation Round - 1Netanya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Ironi Kiryat Shmona44%

×Draw26%

Maccabi Petah Tikva30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ironi Kiryat ShmonaExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Petah Tikva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.12

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

1.42

Maccabi Petah Tikva

1.12

Ironi Kiryat Shmona creates 27% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 68 away

1.26

creates per match

0.94

1.30

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

1.26

Maccabi Petah Tikva

0.94

allows per match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

1.30

Maccabi Petah Tikva

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ironi Kiryat Shmona+0.00on par

Maccabi Petah Tikva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ironi Kiryat Shmona ↓

Maccabi Petah Tikva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ironi Kiryat Shmona or draw

70%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona or Maccabi Petah Tikva

74%

Draw or Maccabi Petah Tikva

56%

Winning margin

Ironi Kiryat Shmona wins by 2+

21%

Maccabi Petah Tikva wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1+ goals

76%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2+ goals

41%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3+ goals

17%

Maccabi Petah Tikva 1+ goals

67%

Maccabi Petah Tikva 2+ goals

31%

Maccabi Petah Tikva 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ironi Kiryat Shmona (draw refunded)

60%

Maccabi Petah Tikva (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.30 · 87 matches

Maccabi Petah Tikva away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.57 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona attack 1.26 + Maccabi Petah Tikva defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.42

Maccabi Petah Tikva attack 0.94 + Ironi Kiryat Shmona defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ironi Kiryat Shmona scores more

44%

level

26%

Maccabi Petah Tikva scores more

30%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ironi Kiryat Shmona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

A. Tzur

Ironi Kiryat Shmona · G

8.2

Match Events

14'

Jardel

24'

A. Stephens↳ C. Martínez

33'

41'

42'

55'

60'

Y. Mordechai← L. Cohen

63'

M. Abu Rumi← C. Bella

63'

D. Twito← B. Shaheen

65'

A. Bar← E. Golasa

69'

M. Abu Rumi

72'

R. Zikri← Jardel

72'

A. Wodaje← N. Niddam

76'

M. Abu RumiGoal Disallowed - offside

77'

77'

83'

88'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IroniMaccabi

Overview

48%Possession52%

10Total Shots25

0Corners9

13Fouls17

Shots

10Total Shots25

4On Target8

4Off Target10

2Blocked7

5Inside Box14

5Outside Box11

Passing

48%Possession52%

354Total Passes373

274Accurate Passes297

77%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

8Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls17

4Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1