Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Maccabi Petah Tikva — Ligat Ha'al 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 68+ matches
Ironi Kiryat Shmona44%
Maccabi Petah Tikva30%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Ironi Kiryat Shmona creates 27% more chances
Season form · 87 home / 68 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under53
- Over47
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ironi Kiryat Shmona ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ironi Kiryat Shmona at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.30 · 87 matches
Maccabi Petah Tikva away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.57 · 68 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ironi Kiryat Shmona attack 1.26 + Maccabi Petah Tikva defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.42
Maccabi Petah Tikva attack 0.94 + Ironi Kiryat Shmona defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.12
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Ironi Kiryat Shmona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Ironi Kiryat Shmona substitutes
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Beitar Jerusalem
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Maccabi Haifa
Maccabi Netanya
Ironi TiberiasIroni Kiryat Shmona
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Hapoel Haifa
Bnei Sakhnin
Hapoel Katamon
Ashdod
Maccabi Bnei RainaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Ironi Kiryat Shmona host Maccabi Petah Tikva on Sunday, 9 March 2025 at 17:30. The match is part of the Ligat Ha'al 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Maccabi Petah Tikva
Ironi Kiryat Shmona beat Maccabi Petah Tikva 2-0 in Ligat Ha'al on March 9, 2025.
Goals: C. Bella (59'), A. Stephens (90+1' pen).
Ironi Kiryat Shmona controlled possession (50%) and registered 11 shots to 9.
The match was played at Netanya Stadium in Netanya.