Maccabi Petah Tikva 0–1 Ironi Kiryat Shmona

Maccabi Petah Tikva

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

A. Stephens 90+4'

12/7/2024

Ligat Ha'al · Round 13HaMoshava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Maccabi Petah Tikva38%

×Draw27%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona35%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maccabi Petah TikvaExpected goals in this matchIroni Kiryat Shmona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.25

Maccabi Petah Tikva

1.32

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 86 away

1.15

creates per match

1.20

1.30

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Maccabi Petah Tikva

1.15

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

1.20

allows per match

Maccabi Petah Tikva

1.30

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maccabi Petah Tikva+0.00on par

Ironi Kiryat Shmona+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Petah Tikva ↓

Ironi Kiryat Shmona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Maccabi Petah Tikva or draw

65%

Maccabi Petah Tikva or Ironi Kiryat Shmona

73%

Draw or Ironi Kiryat Shmona

62%

Winning margin

Maccabi Petah Tikva wins by 2+

17%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Maccabi Petah Tikva 1+ goals

73%

Maccabi Petah Tikva 2+ goals

38%

Maccabi Petah Tikva 3+ goals

15%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1+ goals

71%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2+ goals

36%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Petah Tikva (draw refunded)

52%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Petah Tikva at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.30 · 67 matches

Ironi Kiryat Shmona away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.49 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Petah Tikva attack 1.15 + Ironi Kiryat Shmona defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.32

Ironi Kiryat Shmona attack 1.20 + Maccabi Petah Tikva defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Maccabi Petah Tikva scores more

38%

level

27%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona scores more

35%

Maccabi Petah Tikva at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Maccabi Petah Tikva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

S. Bangoura

Ironi Kiryat Shmona · M

8.2

Match Events

10'

Cristian MartínezGoal cancelled

46'

51'

63'

63'

63'

63'

R. Zikri← Jardel

70'

80'

82'

82'

84'

H. Shibli← Y. Mordechai

90+2'

Marco Wolff

90+4'

A. Stephens↳ H. Shibli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MaccabiIroni

Overview

54%Possession46%

11Total Shots8

5Corners4

18Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots8

5On Target2

1Off Target4

5Blocked2

4Inside Box4

7Outside Box4

Passing

54%Possession46%

439Total Passes367

362Accurate Passes295

82%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

18Fouls10

3Yellow Cards0

0Offsides3